The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sergey Spivak v Vitor Petrino

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 01:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sergey Spivak (Local)

Prediction 43.09%2.32fair odd
EV -1.75%
Edge -0.766%
Kelly -1.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.26%43.24%42.86%45.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.192.202.2848.31%45.58%45.45%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vitor Petrino (Visit)

Prediction 56.91%1.76fair odd
EV +0.724%
Edge +0.409%
Kelly +0.940%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.26%56.76%57.14%57.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.681.681.7762.50%59.52%59.52%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sergey Spivak (Local): 43.09%; Vitor Petrino (Visit): 56.91%. For Vitor Petrino (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.76. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.77, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.724%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -9.50%E -4.53%K -8.64%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV +0.724%E +0.409%K +0.940%G +0.007%4.1%2026-08-23 01:19
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.50%E -4.53%K -8.64%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.55%E -0.897%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-21 10:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.99%EV -5.62%E -2.57%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.01%EV -2.12%E -1.23%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-23 01:39
BetAnything🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -9.50%E -4.53%K -8.64%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -2.69%E -1.57%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-23 00:34
Betsson🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.19%E -2.36%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.26%E -1.92%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-19 14:15
NordicBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.19%E -2.36%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.26%E -1.92%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-19 14:20
ReBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.19%E -2.36%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.26%E -1.92%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-23 00:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.19%E -2.36%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.26%E -1.92%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-22 12:45
Pinnacle🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.57%EV -1.75%E -0.766%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.43%EV -3.83%E -2.27%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-23 01:39
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -5.19%E -2.36%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -3.83%E -2.27%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-22 07:20
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -3.04%E -1.35%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -4.40%E -2.62%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-19 21:45
DraftKings🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -3.47%E -1.55%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.40%E -2.62%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-23 01:39
FanDuel🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -3.47%E -1.55%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.40%E -2.62%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-22 23:55
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.19%E -2.36%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.40%E -2.62%K -6.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-22 07:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.19%E -2.36%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.40%E -2.62%K -6.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-22 07:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.19%E -2.36%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.40%E -2.62%K -6.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-22 07:20
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.19%E -2.36%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.40%E -2.62%K -6.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-22 07:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.19%E -2.36%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.40%E -2.62%K -6.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-22 07:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.19%E -2.36%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.40%E -2.62%K -6.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-22 07:15
BetUS🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%EV -2.61%E -1.15%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.51%EV -4.97%E -2.97%K -7.41%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-23 01:39
Caesars🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.04%E -1.35%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.97%E -2.97%K -7.41%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-23 01:31
SportsBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -4.33%E -1.95%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -4.97%E -2.97%K -7.41%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-22 23:54
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.19%E -2.36%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.97%E -2.97%K -7.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-22 23:54
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.19%E -2.36%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.97%E -2.97%K -7.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-22 23:55
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.19%E -2.36%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.97%E -2.97%K -7.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-22 23:00
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.19%E -2.36%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.97%E -2.97%K -7.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 01:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.19%E -2.36%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.97%E -2.97%K -7.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-22 23:54
Fliff🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.35%E -3.42%K -6.39%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.97%E -2.97%K -7.41%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-23 01:14
TAB🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.04%E -1.35%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.10%E -3.70%K -9.39%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-23 01:09
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.85%EV -9.50%E -4.53%K -8.64%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.15%EV -6.67%E -4.07%K -10.43%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-23 00:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -5.19%E -2.36%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.38%E -5.21%K -13.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-22 12:40
Grosvenor🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.60%EV -10.80%E -5.22%K -10.09%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.40%EV -8.95%E -5.59%K -14.92%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-22 07:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.33I 42.92%NM 42.89%1.75I 57.14%NM 57.11%0.1%2026-08-23 01:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49%0.5%2026-08-23 01:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49%0.5%2026-08-23 01:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49%0.5%2026-08-23 01:40
Novig◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79%0.6%2026-08-23 01:40
ProphetX◎2.28I 43.86%NM 42.71%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.29%2.7%2026-08-23 01:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.38%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.75%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87%6.8%2026-08-21 05:09