Language:English
Sergey Pavlovich v Tallison Teixeira
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sergey Pavlovich (Local)
Prediction 82.47%1.21fair odd
EV -2.68%
Edge -2.27%
Kelly -14.89%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.37%82.42%82.58%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.161.161.1888.50%86.35%86.21%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Tallison Teixeira (Visit)
Prediction 17.53%5.71fair odd
EV +5.16%
Edge +0.860%
Kelly +1.03%
Growth +0.053%
assuming max odds 6.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.97%17.58%17.42%19.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.385.406.0021.05%18.59%18.52%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sergey Pavlovich (Local): 82.47%; Tallison Teixeira (Visit): 17.53%. For Tallison Teixeira (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.71. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.16%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -5.98%E -5.25%K -42.71%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +5.16%E +0.860%K +1.03%G +0.053% | 4.4% | 2026-05-30 11:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -5.16%E -4.48%K -34.37%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV +1.65%E +0.285%K +0.344%G +0.006% | 4.2% | 2026-05-30 12:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.33%EV -5.16%E -4.48%K -34.37%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.67%EV +0.776%E +0.135%K +0.163%G +0.001% | 4.3% | 2026-05-30 12:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.33%EV -5.16%E -4.48%K -34.37%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.67%EV +0.776%E +0.135%K +0.163%G +0.001% | 4.3% | 2026-05-30 12:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.98%E -5.25%K -42.71%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV +0.776%E +0.135%K +0.163%G +0.001% | 5.1% | 2026-05-30 12:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 83.07%EV -3.51%E -3.00%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 5.74I 17.42%NM 16.93%EV +0.601%E +0.105%K +0.127%G +0.001% | 2.9% | 2026-05-29 22:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -4.33%E -3.73%K -27.07%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV -1.85%E -0.331%K -0.403%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-30 12:28 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.71%EV -4.33%E -3.73%K -27.07%G +0.000% | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.29%EV -2.73%E -0.492%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-30 12:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.71%EV -4.33%E -3.73%K -27.07%G +0.000% | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.29%EV -2.73%E -0.492%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-30 07:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -4.33%E -3.73%K -27.07%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -3.61%E -0.656%K -0.801%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-25 17:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.16%E -4.48%K -34.37%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -3.61%E -0.656%K -0.801%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-30 01:09 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.16%E -4.48%K -34.37%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -3.61%E -0.656%K -0.801%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-26 13:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -3.51%E -3.00%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV -5.36%E -0.992%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-25 16:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%EV -4.33%E -3.73%K -27.07%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV -5.36%E -0.992%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-30 11:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%EV -4.33%E -3.73%K -27.07%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV -5.36%E -0.992%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-30 11:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%EV -4.33%E -3.73%K -27.07%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV -5.36%E -0.992%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-26 13:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%EV -4.33%E -3.73%K -27.07%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV -5.36%E -0.992%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-26 13:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%EV -4.33%E -3.73%K -27.07%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV -5.36%E -0.992%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-26 13:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%EV -4.33%E -3.73%K -27.07%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV -5.36%E -0.992%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-26 13:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%EV -4.33%E -3.73%K -27.07%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV -5.36%E -0.992%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-26 13:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%EV -4.33%E -3.73%K -27.07%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV -5.36%E -0.992%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-26 13:39 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%EV -4.33%E -3.73%K -27.07%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV -5.36%E -0.992%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-26 13:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -3.51%E -3.00%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -7.99%E -1.52%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-30 12:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.33%E -3.73%K -27.07%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -8.86%E -1.70%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-29 19:08 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.86%EV -6.80%E -6.02%K -52.34%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.14%EV -10.62%E -2.08%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-25 17:48 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -2.68%E -2.27%K -14.89%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -12.37%E -2.47%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-30 12:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -2.68%E -2.27%K -14.89%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -12.37%E -2.47%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-25 16:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.51%E -3.00%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.37%E -2.47%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-30 02:57 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.51%E -3.00%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.37%E -2.47%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-30 08:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -6.80%E -6.02%K -52.34%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -12.37%E -2.47%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-30 09:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -4.33%E -3.73%K -27.07%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -15.87%E -3.31%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-30 11:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -4.33%E -3.73%K -27.07%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -16.75%E -3.53%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-30 12:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.83% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.17% | -0.1% | 2026-05-30 12:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14% | 0.6% | 2026-05-30 12:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14% | 0.6% | 2026-05-30 12:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14% | 0.6% | 2026-05-30 12:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.25% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.75% | 1.3% | 2026-05-30 11:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 82.73% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.27% | 1.6% | 2026-05-30 12:30 |
| Novig◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.39% | 5.52I 18.12%NM 17.61% | 2.9% | 2026-05-30 12:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.46% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54% | 3.7% | 2026-05-30 12:30 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.24% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.89% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 6.9% | 2026-05-28 17:49 |