Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Seok Hyun Ko v Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

Kickoff: 2026-07-18 23:16 UTC

Final: Seok Hyun Ko 0–1 Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Seok Hyun Ko (Local)

Prediction 61.30%1.63fair odd
EV -2.53%
Edge -1.59%
Kelly -4.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.15%61.48%61.37%64.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.541.541.5967.57%64.77%64.94%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (Visit)

Prediction 38.70%2.58fair odd
EV +4.49%
Edge +1.66%
Kelly +2.64%
Growth +0.118%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.41%38.52%38.63%39.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.492.502.7041.67%40.11%40.00%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
NordicBet1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -9.28%E -6.27%K -19.32%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV +4.49%E +1.66%K +2.64%G +0.118%4.6%2026-07-17 20:29
Betsson1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -9.28%E -6.27%K -19.32%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV +4.49%E +1.66%K +2.64%G +0.118%4.6%2026-07-17 20:29
TAB1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -8.05%E -5.37%K -16.10%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +0.618%E +0.238%K +0.386%G +0.002%5.1%2026-07-18 23:10
FanDuel1.56I 64.10%NM 61.76%EV -4.37%E -2.80%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.24%EV -2.48%E -0.983%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-18 04:45
SportsBet1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -6.21%E -4.06%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -2.48%E -0.983%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-18 04:35
Pinnacle1.58I 63.29%NM 61.37%EV -3.14%E -1.99%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.63%EV -2.86%E -1.14%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-18 22:55
BetOnline.ag1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -3.76%E -2.39%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -3.25%E -1.30%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-18 20:29
Bovada1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.37%E -2.80%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.25%E -1.30%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-18 20:04
Grosvenor1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.60%E -3.63%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.25%E -1.30%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-18 14:15
Virgin Bet1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.60%E -3.63%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.25%E -1.30%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-18 14:15
LiveScore Bet1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.60%E -3.63%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.25%E -1.30%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-18 14:15
BetRivers1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.60%E -3.63%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.25%E -1.30%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-18 14:15
TABtouch1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.60%E -3.63%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.25%E -1.30%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-18 14:10
Unibet1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.60%E -3.63%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.25%E -1.30%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-18 14:15
betPARX1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.60%E -3.63%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.25%E -1.30%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-18 14:14
ATG (SE)1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.60%E -3.63%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.25%E -1.30%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-18 14:15
Bally Bet1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.60%E -3.63%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.25%E -1.30%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-18 14:10
Hard Rock Bet1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.60%E -3.63%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.25%E -1.30%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-18 14:15
Paddy Power1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.21%E -4.06%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.25%E -1.30%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 04:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.21%E -4.06%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.25%E -1.30%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 04:35
Coolbet1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -3.14%E -1.99%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -5.19%E -2.12%K -3.58%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-18 15:25
DraftKings1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.76%E -2.39%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.19%E -2.12%K -3.58%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-18 19:15
BetMGM1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.76%E -2.39%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.19%E -2.12%K -3.58%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-18 23:05
Unibet (UK)1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.37%E -2.80%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -5.19%E -2.12%K -3.58%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-18 20:30
Ladbrokes (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.98%E -3.22%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.19%E -2.12%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 23:05
Bet Right1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.98%E -3.22%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.19%E -2.12%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 23:10
Betr (AU)1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -5.60%E -3.63%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -5.19%E -2.12%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-18 20:35
888sport1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.21%E -4.06%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.19%E -2.12%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-18 19:25
PlayUp1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.21%E -4.06%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.19%E -2.12%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-18 20:25
PointsBet (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -8.05%E -5.37%K -16.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -5.19%E -2.12%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-18 19:25
Caesars1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -2.53%E -1.59%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -5.96%E -2.45%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-18 19:29
BetAnything1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -2.53%E -1.59%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -7.12%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-18 23:10
Betway1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.76%E -2.39%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.12%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 07:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly1.62I 61.73%NM 61.79%2.62I 38.17%NM 38.21%-0.1%2026-07-18 20:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%0.7%2026-07-18 23:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%0.7%2026-07-18 23:10
Novig1.60I 62.50%NM 61.90%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10%1.0%2026-07-18 23:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28%1.0%2026-07-18 23:10
Matchbook1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28%1.0%2026-07-18 23:10
Polymarket1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.2%2026-07-18 23:05
ProphetX1.60I 62.50%NM 61.35%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.65%1.9%2026-07-18 23:10
Kalshi1.59I 62.89%NM 61.69%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.31%2.0%2026-07-18 23:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet1.55I 64.52%NM 59.58%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.16%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.25%8.3%2026-07-18 19:05