The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sebastian Decowski v Tobiasz Le

Kickoff: 2026-04-18 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sebastian Decowski (Local)

Prediction 52.22%1.92fair odd
EV +1.83%
Edge +0.937%
Kelly +1.92%
Growth +0.035%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.00%52.22%52.22%52.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.931.941.9554.64%51.93%51.55%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tobiasz Le (Visit)

Prediction 47.78%2.09fair odd
EV -4.44%
Edge -2.22%
Kelly -4.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.78%47.78%47.78%52.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.831.802.0055.56%54.69%55.56%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sebastian Decowski (Local): 52.22%; Tobiasz Le (Visit): 47.78%. For Sebastian Decowski (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.92. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.83%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV +1.83%E +0.937%K +1.92%G +0.035%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -13.99%E -7.77%K -17.49%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-18 14:30
LeoVegas🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV +1.31%E +0.673%K +1.39%G +0.018%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV -13.99%E -7.77%K -17.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-18 14:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV +1.31%E +0.673%K +1.39%G +0.018%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV -13.99%E -7.77%K -17.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-18 14:30
Grosvenor🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV +1.31%E +0.673%K +1.39%G +0.018%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV -13.99%E -7.77%K -17.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-18 14:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV +1.31%E +0.673%K +1.39%G +0.018%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV -13.99%E -7.77%K -17.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-18 14:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV +1.31%E +0.673%K +1.39%G +0.018%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV -13.99%E -7.77%K -17.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-18 14:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.44%E -2.43%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.44%E -2.22%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-18 14:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.