The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sean Gauci v Liam Gittins

Kickoff: 2026-04-16 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sean Gauci (Local)

Prediction 33.42%2.99fair odd
EV +10.30%
Edge +3.12%
Kelly +4.48%
Growth +0.461%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.10%33.42%29.36%44.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.062.722.753.3048.54%36.71%36.36%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Liam Gittins (Visit)

Prediction 66.58%1.50fair odd
EV +11.85%
Edge +7.05%
Kelly +17.42%
Growth +2.06%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.08%66.58%70.64%71.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.451.361.6878.13%69.16%73.26%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sean Gauci (Local): 33.42%; Liam Gittins (Visit): 66.58%. For Liam Gittins (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.50. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.68, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.85%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.92%EV -31.15%E -15.12%K -29.38%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%EV +11.85%E +7.05%K +17.42%G +2.06%8.1%2026-04-16 19:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.92%EV -31.15%E -15.12%K -29.38%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%EV +11.85%E +7.05%K +17.42%G +2.06%8.1%2026-04-16 19:39
BetOnline.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.71%EV -22.46%E -9.68%K -17.01%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.29%EV +10.52%E +6.34%K +15.93%G +1.68%3.3%2026-04-16 19:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -18.11%E -7.39%K -12.49%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV +1.86%E +1.22%K +3.51%G +0.065%6.2%2026-04-16 19:44
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -18.11%E -7.39%K -12.49%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV +1.86%E +1.22%K +3.51%G +0.065%6.2%2026-04-16 19:43
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -13.10%E -5.04%K -8.19%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.00%EV -6.79%E -4.85%K -16.98%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-16 19:54
BetMGM🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV +6.96%E +2.17%K +3.16%G +0.220%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -11.45%E -8.61%K -34.71%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-16 19:54
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.37%EV +1.94%E +0.637%K +0.948%G +0.018%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.63%EV -11.45%E -8.61%K -34.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-16 19:54
FanDuel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV +6.96%E +2.17%K +3.16%G +0.220%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -12.12%E -9.18%K -37.87%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-16 19:55
Bally Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -3.07%E -1.06%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 68.72%EV -12.12%E -9.18%K -37.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-16 19:54
Unibet (NL)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV +10.30%E +3.12%K +4.48%G +0.461%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.90%EV -14.12%E -10.94%K -48.68%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-16 19:54
LeoVegas🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.22%EV +3.61%E +1.17%K +1.72%G +0.062%1.28I 78.13%NM 70.78%EV -14.78%E -11.55%K -52.80%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-16 19:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.