The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sean Gauci v Allan Begosso

Kickoff: 2026-07-31 22:08 UTC

Final: Sean Gauci 1–0 Allan Begosso

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sean Gauci (Local)

Prediction 73.99%1.35fair odd
EV -0.856%
Edge -0.639%
Kelly -2.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.12%73.99%73.99%74.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.321.331.3477.52%75.47%74.91%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Allan Begosso (Visit)

Prediction 26.01%3.84fair odd
EV -1.15%
Edge -0.304%
Kelly -0.412%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.34%26.01%26.01%30.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.293.173.8033.33%30.38%31.50%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sean Gauci (Local): 73.99%; Allan Begosso (Visit): 26.01%. For Sean Gauci (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.35. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.34, with an expected value of -0.856%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -0.856%E -0.639%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.88%EV -21.96%E -7.32%K -10.98%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-31 20:15
Grosvenor🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -0.856%E -0.639%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.88%EV -21.96%E -7.32%K -10.98%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-31 20:14
Bally Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -0.856%E -0.639%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.88%EV -21.96%E -7.32%K -10.98%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-31 20:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -1.60%E -1.20%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -12.86%E -3.84%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-31 22:04
FanDuel🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -3.08%E -2.35%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -6.36%E -1.77%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-31 22:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -4.56%E -3.53%K -15.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -1.15%E -0.304%K -0.412%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-31 22:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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