Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sarvarjon Hamidov v Rafael do Nascimento

2026-10-17 03:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

72%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sarvarjon Hamidov (Local)

Prediction 72.41%1.38fair odd

EV -6.59%

Edge -5.11%

Kelly -22.73%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

71.75%72.41%72.41%73.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.261.281.291.2979.37%77.88%77.52%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rafael do Nascimento (Visit)

Prediction 27.59%3.62fair odd

EV -3.43%

Edge -0.980%

Kelly -1.37%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

26.93%27.59%27.59%28.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.203.413.453.5031.25%29.33%28.99%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Sarvarjon Hamidov (Local): 72.41%; Rafael do Nascimento (Visit): 27.59%. For Rafael do Nascimento (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.62. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.50, with an expected value of -3.43%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.59%E -5.11%K -22.73%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -3.43%E -0.980%K -1.37%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-10-14 14:10
Unibet🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 72.78%EV -6.59%E -5.11%K -22.73%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV -4.81%E -1.39%K -1.96%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-10-14 14:09
Grosvenor🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 72.78%EV -6.59%E -5.11%K -22.73%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV -4.81%E -1.39%K -1.96%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-10-14 14:09
Bally Bet🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 72.78%EV -6.59%E -5.11%K -22.73%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV -4.81%E -1.39%K -1.96%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-10-14 14:08
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 71.75%EV -8.76%E -6.96%K -33.71%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -11.71%E -3.66%K -5.32%G +0.000%	10.6%	2026-10-14 14:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.