The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sarvarjon Hamidov v Rafael do Nascimento

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 03:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sarvarjon Hamidov (Local)

Prediction 77.78%1.29fair odd
EV -3.55%
Edge -2.86%
Kelly -14.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.07%77.78%77.78%79.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.211.221.2486.21%82.76%81.97%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rafael do Nascimento (Visit)

Prediction 22.22%4.50fair odd
EV +2.20%
Edge +0.479%
Kelly +0.612%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.55%22.22%22.22%22.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.224.104.6024.39%23.72%24.39%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sarvarjon Hamidov (Local): 77.78%; Rafael do Nascimento (Visit): 22.22%. For Rafael do Nascimento (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.50. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.20%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -7.44%E -6.25%K -39.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV +2.20%E +0.479%K +0.612%G +0.013%5.8%2026-10-17 02:40
FanDuel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -3.55%E -2.86%K -14.79%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -4.46%E -1.04%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-16 17:15
Unibet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -5.11%E -4.19%K -23.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -8.91%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-16 22:44
Grosvenor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -5.11%E -4.19%K -23.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -8.91%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-16 22:45
Bally Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -5.11%E -4.19%K -23.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -8.91%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-16 22:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 77.95%EV -9.77%E -8.42%K -61.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.05%EV -8.91%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-17 02:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.