Santiago Ponzinibbio v Sam Patterson

2026-07-25 09:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

1 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

23%

77%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Santiago Ponzinibbio (Local)

Prediction 22.59%4.43fair odd

EV -4.01%

Edge -0.943%

Kelly -1.23%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

22.59%22.59%22.59%22.59%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

4.254.254.254.2524%24%24%24%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sam Patterson (Visit)

Prediction 77.41%1.29fair odd

EV -4.01%

Edge -3.23%

Kelly -16.70%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

77.41%77.41%77.41%77.41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.241.241.241.2481%81%81%81%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -4.01%E -0.943%K -1.23%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -4.01%E -3.23%K -16.70%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-07-15 20:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Polymarket	1.69I 59.17%NM 45.83%	1.43I 69.93%NM 54.17%	29.1%	2026-07-16 01:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet	4.29I 23.31%NM 21.79%	1.24I 80.65%NM 75.38%	33.00I 3.03%NM 2.83%	7.0%	2026-07-15 20:49