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Santiago Ponzinibbio v Sam Patterson
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Santiago Ponzinibbio (Local)
Prediction 19.06%5.25fair odd
EV +4.26%
Edge +0.779%
Kelly +0.953%
Growth +0.041%
assuming max odds 5.47
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.74%19.25%19.09%21.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.814.705.4722.73%20.77%21.28%18.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sam Patterson (Visit)
Prediction 80.94%1.24fair odd
EV -1.25%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -5.70%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.22
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.85%80.75%80.91%82.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.181.181.2286.96%84.50%84.75%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Santiago Ponzinibbio (Local): 19.06%; Sam Patterson (Visit): 80.94%. For Santiago Ponzinibbio (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.25. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.47, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.26%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 5.47I 18.28%NM 17.74%EV +4.26%E +0.779%K +0.953%G +0.041% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.26%EV -4.49%E -3.81%K -24.95%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-07-25 14:45 |
| Caesars | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV +1.02%E +0.193%K +0.237%G +0.002% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -5.30%E -4.53%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-25 14:37 |
| DraftKings | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV +0.067%E +0.013%K +0.016%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -5.30%E -4.53%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-25 14:45 |
| BetMGM | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV +0.067%E +0.013%K +0.016%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -5.30%E -4.53%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-25 13:57 |
| Bovada | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV +0.067%E +0.013%K +0.016%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -5.30%E -4.53%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-25 14:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -0.886%E -0.170%K -0.211%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -5.30%E -4.53%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-25 13:55 |
| Betsson | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.51%EV -1.84%E -0.357%K -0.443%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.49%EV -5.30%E -4.53%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-25 11:55 |
| NordicBet | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.51%EV -1.84%E -0.357%K -0.443%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.49%EV -5.30%E -4.53%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-25 11:55 |
| BetOnline.ag | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.70%E -0.940%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.49%E -3.81%K -24.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-25 14:39 |
| Unibet (UK) | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.70%E -0.940%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.49%E -3.81%K -24.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-25 14:40 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.70%E -0.940%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.49%E -3.81%K -24.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-25 12:25 |
| Bet Right | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.70%E -0.940%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.30%E -4.53%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-25 12:30 |
| BetUS | 4.99I 20.04%NM 19.12%EV -4.89%E -0.980%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.88%EV -4.49%E -3.81%K -24.95%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-25 14:40 |
| SportsBet | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.25%EV -5.65%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.75%EV -4.49%E -3.81%K -24.95%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-25 03:35 |
| FanDuel | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.67%EV -6.60%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.33%EV -2.87%E -2.39%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-07-25 03:35 |
| Fliff | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -6.60%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -5.30%E -4.53%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-25 14:45 |
| 888sport | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -8.51%E -1.77%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -4.49%E -3.81%K -24.95%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-25 12:25 |
| Betr (AU) | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -10.42%E -2.22%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -4.49%E -3.81%K -24.95%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-25 12:30 |
| TAB | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -12.32%E -2.68%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.87%E -2.39%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-24 02:15 |
| Virgin Bet | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -12.32%E -2.68%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -3.68%E -3.09%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-25 10:35 |
| Unibet | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -12.32%E -2.68%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -3.68%E -3.09%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-25 10:40 |
| LiveScore Bet | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -12.32%E -2.68%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -3.68%E -3.09%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-25 10:35 |
| TABtouch | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -12.32%E -2.68%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -3.68%E -3.09%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-25 10:39 |
| BetRivers | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -12.32%E -2.68%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -3.68%E -3.09%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-25 10:35 |
| ATG (SE) | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -12.32%E -2.68%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -3.68%E -3.09%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-25 10:35 |
| betPARX | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -12.32%E -2.68%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -3.68%E -3.09%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-25 10:40 |
| Bally Bet | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -12.32%E -2.68%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -3.68%E -3.09%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-25 10:35 |
| Coolbet | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.14%EV -13.27%E -2.92%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.86%EV -1.25%E -1.03%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-22 23:54 |
| Paddy Power | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -14.23%E -3.16%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -2.87%E -2.39%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-25 03:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -14.23%E -3.16%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -2.87%E -2.39%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-25 03:30 |
| Betway | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -14.23%E -3.16%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -2.87%E -2.39%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-23 15:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -14.23%E -3.16%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -3.68%E -3.09%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-25 10:40 |
| PlayUp | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -14.23%E -3.16%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -3.68%E -3.09%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-24 04:34 |
| BetAnything | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -16.13%E -3.67%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -4.49%E -3.81%K -24.95%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-25 14:35 |
| Grosvenor | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.72%EV -16.13%E -3.67%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.28%EV -6.92%E -6.02%K -46.13%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-25 10:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.67% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 83.33% | 0.0% | 2026-07-25 14:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.03% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.97% | 0.8% | 2026-07-25 14:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.03% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.97% | 0.8% | 2026-07-25 14:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.03% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.97% | 0.8% | 2026-07-25 14:40 |
| Matchbook | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.03% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.97% | 0.8% | 2026-07-25 14:45 |
| Polymarket | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.83% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.17% | 1.0% | 2026-07-25 14:25 |
| ProphetX | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.86% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.14% | 1.0% | 2026-07-25 14:45 |
| Kalshi | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.26% | 1.3% | 2026-07-25 11:00 |
| Novig | 5.41I 18.48%NM 18.15% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 81.85% | 1.8% | 2026-07-25 14:40 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.62% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.86% | 7.8% | 2026-07-25 04:05 |