The School of Odds

Ryan Gandra v Zachary Reese

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 21:30 UTC

Final: Ryan Gandra 1–0 Zachary Reese

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Ryan Gandra (Local)

Prediction 55.10%1.81fair odd
EV -3.03%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -3.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.44%55.07%55.12%56.99%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.661.711.711.7660%58%58%57%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Zachary Reese (Visit)

Prediction 44.90%2.23fair odd
EV -0.317%
Edge -0.143%
Kelly -0.260%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.01%44.93%44.88%46.56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.022.092.102.2250%48%48%45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -3.03%E -1.72%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -4.81%E -2.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-11 21:21
BetAnything1.76I 56.82%NM 53.44%EV -3.03%E -1.72%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.56%EV -9.30%E -4.60%K -9.12%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-11 21:22
Pinnacle1.75I 57.14%NM 55.58%EV -3.58%E -2.05%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 44.42%EV -1.66%E -0.760%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.8%2026-07-11 21:20
FanDuel1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -3.58%E -2.05%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -3.91%E -1.83%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-11 18:04
Ladbrokes (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.58%E -2.05%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.71%E -2.72%K -5.19%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-09 17:09
SportsBet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.13%E -2.37%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.71%E -2.72%K -5.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-11 18:00
Caesars1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.13%E -2.37%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-11 21:23
Paddy Power1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.68%E -2.71%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.71%E -2.72%K -5.19%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-05 21:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.68%E -2.71%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.71%E -2.72%K -5.19%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-05 21:10
NordicBet1.72I 58.14%NM 55.67%EV -5.23%E -3.04%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.33%EV -3.01%E -1.39%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-11 19:24
PlayUp1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.23%E -3.04%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.81%E -2.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-11 19:54
TAB1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.23%E -3.04%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.71%E -2.72%K -5.19%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-07 01:19
Unibet (UK)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -5.23%E -3.04%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-11 21:22
DraftKings1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.78%E -3.38%K -8.14%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.71%E -2.72%K -5.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-11 21:24
Unibet1.71I 58.48%NM 54.64%EV -5.78%E -3.38%K -8.14%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.36%EV -7.50%E -3.64%K -7.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-11 21:24
Hard Rock Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -5.78%E -3.38%K -8.14%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-11 21:23
Bovada1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -6.33%E -3.73%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -0.317%E -0.143%K -0.260%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-11 21:23
PointsBet (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.33%E -3.73%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.46%E -1.61%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-11 20:59
Betr (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.33%E -3.73%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.71%E -2.72%K -5.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-11 15:44
ATG (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -6.33%E -3.73%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -6.60%E -3.17%K -6.11%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-11 21:24
betPARX1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -6.33%E -3.73%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -6.60%E -3.17%K -6.11%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-11 21:25
Virgin Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV -6.33%E -3.73%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%EV -9.30%E -4.60%K -9.12%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-11 21:23
LiveScore Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV -6.33%E -3.73%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%EV -9.30%E -4.60%K -9.12%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-11 21:23
TABtouch1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%EV -7.44%E -4.43%K -10.93%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.92%EV -7.50%E -3.64%K -7.08%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-11 21:24
Grosvenor1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%EV -7.44%E -4.43%K -10.93%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.92%EV -7.50%E -3.64%K -7.08%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-11 21:24
Bally Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 54.99%EV -7.99%E -4.78%K -11.92%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.01%EV -8.40%E -4.12%K -8.08%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-11 21:25
Bet Right1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -8.54%E -5.14%K -12.94%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -1.22%E -0.552%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-11 21:04
Betsson1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%EV -8.54%E -5.14%K -12.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%EV -5.71%E -2.72%K -5.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-11 21:24
BetRivers1.66I 60.24%NM 55.14%EV -8.54%E -5.14%K -12.94%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.86%EV -8.40%E -4.12%K -8.08%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-11 21:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly1.81I 55.25%NM 55.31%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.69%-0.1%2026-07-11 18:04
ProphetX1.75I 57.14%NM 56.36%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.64%1.4%2026-07-11 21:23
Matchbook1.76I 56.82%NM 56.00%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.00%1.5%2026-07-11 21:22
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 56.14%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.86%1.8%2026-07-11 21:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%2.2%2026-07-11 21:25
Novig1.77I 56.50%NM 54.85%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.15%3.0%2026-07-11 21:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.06I 94.34%NM 67.28%2.18I 45.87%NM 32.72%40.2%2026-07-11 21:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet1.69I 59.17%NM 54.50%2.11I 47.39%NM 43.65%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84%8.6%2026-07-11 17:59