Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ryan Gandra v Ozzy Diaz

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 23:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

81%

19%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ryan Gandra (Local)

Prediction 81.13%1.23fair odd

EV -2.65%

Edge -2.20%

Kelly -13.23%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

78.85%81.12%81.06%83.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.101.181.181.2090.91%84.84%84.75%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ozzy Diaz (Visit)

Prediction 18.87%5.30fair odd

EV +8.51%

Edge +1.48%

Kelly +1.79%

Growth +0.152%

assuming max odds 5.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

16.42%18.88%18.94%21.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.204.904.905.7523.81%20.40%20.41%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ryan Gandra (Local): 81.13%; Ozzy Diaz (Visit): 18.87%. For Ozzy Diaz (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.30. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.51%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
TAB🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -8.32%E -7.37%K -64.03%G +0.000%	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV +8.51%E +1.48%K +1.79%G +0.152%	5.9%	2026-09-19 22:20
Pinnacle🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 81.89%EV -3.46%E -2.90%K -18.19%G +0.000%	5.38I 18.59%NM 18.11%EV +1.53%E +0.284%K +0.349%G +0.005%	2.6%	2026-09-19 23:04
Coolbet🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 81.89%EV -3.46%E -2.90%K -18.19%G +0.000%	5.38I 18.59%NM 18.11%EV +1.53%E +0.284%K +0.349%G +0.005%	2.6%	2026-09-19 23:09
FanDuel🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 81.50%EV -4.27%E -3.62%K -23.71%G +0.000%	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.50%EV -1.87%E -0.360%K -0.445%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-09-19 16:14
DraftKings🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 81.21%EV -4.27%E -3.62%K -23.71%G +0.000%	5.10I 19.61%NM 18.79%EV -3.76%E -0.737%K -0.916%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-09-19 22:04
Bovada🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 81.21%EV -4.27%E -3.62%K -23.71%G +0.000%	5.10I 19.61%NM 18.79%EV -3.76%E -0.737%K -0.916%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-09-19 19:27
SportsBet🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.08%E -4.34%K -29.88%G +0.000%	5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.76%E -0.737%K -0.916%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-17 08:00
888sport🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.08%E -4.34%K -29.88%G +0.000%	5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.76%E -0.737%K -0.916%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-19 22:15
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.27%E -3.62%K -23.71%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -5.64%E -1.13%K -1.41%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-09-19 23:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.27%E -3.62%K -23.71%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -5.64%E -1.13%K -1.41%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-09-19 19:50
NordicBet🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.27%E -3.62%K -23.71%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -5.64%E -1.13%K -1.41%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-09-19 14:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.27%E -3.62%K -23.71%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -5.64%E -1.13%K -1.41%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-09-15 13:05
BetMGM🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.27%E -3.62%K -23.71%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -5.64%E -1.13%K -1.41%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-09-16 00:30
Fliff🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.88%EV -5.08%E -4.34%K -29.88%G +0.000%	4.95I 20.20%NM 19.12%EV -6.59%E -1.33%K -1.67%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-19 22:09
Bet Right🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -5.08%E -4.34%K -29.88%G +0.000%	4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -7.53%E -1.54%K -1.93%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-09-19 14:02
Betsson🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -5.08%E -4.34%K -29.88%G +0.000%	4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -7.53%E -1.54%K -1.93%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-09-19 14:55
Betr (AU)🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -5.08%E -4.34%K -29.88%G +0.000%	4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -8.47%E -1.75%K -2.20%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-09-19 22:14
Unibet🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -3.46%E -2.90%K -18.19%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -10.36%E -2.18%K -2.76%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-19 14:01
Virgin Bet🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -3.46%E -2.90%K -18.19%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -10.36%E -2.18%K -2.76%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-19 14:00
TABtouch🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -3.46%E -2.90%K -18.19%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -10.36%E -2.18%K -2.76%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-19 14:01
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -3.46%E -2.90%K -18.19%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -10.36%E -2.18%K -2.76%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-19 14:01
BetRivers🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -3.46%E -2.90%K -18.19%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -10.36%E -2.18%K -2.76%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-19 14:02
Bally Bet🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -3.46%E -2.90%K -18.19%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -10.36%E -2.18%K -2.76%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-19 14:02
betPARX🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -3.46%E -2.90%K -18.19%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -10.36%E -2.18%K -2.76%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-19 14:02
ATG (SE)🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -3.46%E -2.90%K -18.19%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -10.36%E -2.18%K -2.76%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-19 14:01
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -3.46%E -2.90%K -18.19%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -10.36%E -2.18%K -2.76%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-19 14:01
Sky Bet🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -2.65%E -2.20%K -13.23%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -15.08%E -3.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-17 08:00
Paddy Power🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -2.65%E -2.20%K -13.23%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -15.08%E -3.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-17 07:59
BetAnything🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -4.27%E -3.62%K -23.71%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -16.97%E -3.86%K -4.99%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-09-19 23:09
Grosvenor🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 79.25%EV -10.76%E -9.78%K -107.58%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 20.75%EV -20.74%E -4.94%K -6.48%G +0.000%	14.7%	2026-09-19 14:01

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
BetOpenly◎	1.20I 83.33%NM 83.05%	5.88I 17.01%NM 16.95%	0.3%	2026-09-19 23:00
Matchbook◎	1.22I 81.97%NM 81.57%	5.40I 18.52%NM 18.43%	0.5%	2026-09-19 23:04
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.22I 81.97%NM 81.57%	5.40I 18.52%NM 18.43%	0.5%	2026-09-19 23:04
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.22I 81.97%NM 81.57%	5.40I 18.52%NM 18.43%	0.5%	2026-09-19 23:04
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.22I 81.97%NM 81.57%	5.40I 18.52%NM 18.43%	0.5%	2026-09-19 23:04
Novig◎	1.22I 81.97%NM 81.17%	5.26I 19.01%NM 18.83%	1.0%	2026-09-19 23:04
ProphetX◎	1.22I 81.97%NM 80.85%	5.15I 19.42%NM 19.15%	1.4%	2026-09-19 23:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 79.66%	4.95I 20.20%NM 18.51%	50.00I 2.00%NM 1.83%	9.2%	2026-09-14 01:20