Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ruben Vinci v Jurgen Koci

2026-10-17 16:05 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

28%

72%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ruben Vinci (Local)

Prediction 27.82%3.59fair odd

EV -4.01%

Edge -1.16%

Kelly -1.64%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.82%27.82%27.82%28.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.203.283.203.4531.25%30.46%31.25%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jurgen Koci (Visit)

Prediction 72.18%1.39fair odd

EV -4.01%

Edge -3.01%

Kelly -12.14%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

71.11%72.18%72.18%72.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.301.311.301.3376.92%76.34%76.92%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Ruben Vinci (Local): 27.82%; Jurgen Koci (Visit): 72.18%. For Ruben Vinci (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.59. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.45, with an expected value of -4.01%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -4.01%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000%	1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -4.01%E -3.01%K -12.14%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-16 14:23
Unibet🎯	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -10.96%E -3.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.17%E -4.75%K -20.57%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-10-16 14:25
Grosvenor🎯	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -10.96%E -3.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.17%E -4.75%K -20.57%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-10-16 14:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.