The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Ronda Rousey v Gina Carano

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 03:55 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ronda Rousey (Local)

Prediction 80.91%1.24fair odd
EV -4.53%
Edge -3.84%
Kelly -25.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.72%80.91%80.91%82.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.171.181.1887.72%85.40%84.75%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gina Carano (Visit)

Prediction 19.09%5.24fair odd
EV -0.712%
Edge -0.137%
Kelly -0.170%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.98%19.09%19.09%20.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.604.925.005.2021.74%20.35%20.00%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ronda Rousey (Local): 80.91%; Gina Carano (Visit): 19.09%. For Gina Carano (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.24. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.20, with an expected value of -0.712%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.53%E -3.84%K -25.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.53%E -0.906%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-17 03:50
LeoVegas🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.53%E -3.84%K -25.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.53%E -0.906%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-17 03:49
Grosvenor🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.53%E -3.84%K -25.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.53%E -0.906%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-17 03:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.53%E -3.84%K -25.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.53%E -0.906%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-17 03:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.53%E -3.84%K -25.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.53%E -0.906%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-17 03:49
Bally Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.53%E -3.84%K -25.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.53%E -0.906%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-17 03:49
Neds🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -5.34%E -4.56%K -31.41%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -12.17%E -2.65%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 03:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -5.34%E -4.56%K -31.41%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -12.17%E -2.65%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 03:50
William Hill🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -6.96%E -6.05%K -46.39%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -9.30%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 03:49
SportsBet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.02%EV -7.77%E -6.81%K -55.48%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -0.712%E -0.137%K -0.170%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 03:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.22I 81.97%NM 80.85%5.15I 19.42%NM 19.15%1.4%2026-05-17 03:50
Kalshi◎1.22I 81.97%NM 80.39%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.61%2.0%2026-05-17 03:50