The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Ronald Humphrey v Alexis Miranda

Kickoff: 2026-08-25 23:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ronald Humphrey (Local)

Prediction 90.20%1.11fair odd
EV -3.48%
Edge -3.26%
Kelly -49.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
86.90%90.20%90.06%90.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.061.071.0795.24%93.95%93.46%93.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alexis Miranda (Visit)

Prediction 9.80%10.21fair odd
EV +2.49%
Edge +0.238%
Kelly +0.263%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 10.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.20%9.80%9.94%13.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.109.269.5010.4614.08%10.80%10.53%9.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ronald Humphrey (Local): 90.20%; Alexis Miranda (Visit): 9.80%. For Alexis Miranda (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.21. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.46, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.49%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 90.80%EV -4.39%E -4.14%K -73.11%G +0.000%10.46I 9.56%NM 9.20%EV +2.49%E +0.238%K +0.263%G +0.007%3.9%2026-08-25 22:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.28%EV -5.29%E -5.04%K -105.77%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.72%EV -4.47%E -0.458%K -0.510%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-25 22:34
FanDuel🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 90.06%EV -3.48%E -3.26%K -49.78%G +0.000%9.70I 10.31%NM 9.94%EV -4.96%E -0.511%K -0.570%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-25 23:34
Unibet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.88%EV -3.48%E -3.26%K -49.78%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV -6.92%E -0.728%K -0.814%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-25 21:23
Grosvenor🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.88%EV -3.48%E -3.26%K -49.78%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV -6.92%E -0.728%K -0.814%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-25 21:25
TABtouch🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.88%EV -3.48%E -3.26%K -49.78%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV -6.92%E -0.728%K -0.814%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-25 21:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.74%EV -3.48%E -3.26%K -49.78%G +0.000%9.36I 10.68%NM 10.26%EV -8.29%E -0.885%K -0.991%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-25 23:33
ReBet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -5.29%E -5.04%K -105.77%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -16.71%E -1.97%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-25 23:34
BetAnything🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.90%EV -3.48%E -3.26%K -49.78%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.10%EV -30.43%E -4.29%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-25 23:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.08I 92.59%NM 92.25%12.85I 7.78%NM 7.75%0.4%2026-08-25 23:34
Novig◎1.10I 90.91%NM 86.25%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.75%5.4%2026-08-25 23:34
ProphetX◎1.05I 95.24%NM 87.72%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%8.6%2026-08-25 23:34