Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Roman Dolidze v Reinier de Ridder

2026-08-23 00:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

26%

74%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Roman Dolidze (Local)

Prediction 26.39%3.79fair odd

EV -2.34%

Edge -0.632%

Kelly -0.866%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

25.77%26.71%26.38%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.253.553.603.7030.77%28.15%27.78%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Reinier de Ridder (Visit)

Prediction 73.61%1.36fair odd

EV -4.31%

Edge -3.32%

Kelly -14.38%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

71.43%73.29%73.62%74.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.251.291.301.3080.00%77.52%76.92%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Roman Dolidze (Local): 26.39%; Reinier de Ridder (Visit): 73.61%. For Roman Dolidze (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.79. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.70, with an expected value of -2.34%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV -2.34%E -0.632%K -0.866%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -4.31%E -3.32%K -14.38%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-08-11 19:24
BetUS🎯	3.67I 27.25%NM 26.16%EV -3.13%E -0.853%K -1.17%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.84%EV -4.31%E -3.32%K -14.38%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-08-12 01:04
888sport🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.98%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.05%E -3.91%K -17.41%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-12 01:24
Betclic (FR)🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -4.98%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -7.99%E -6.39%K -31.97%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-08-11 20:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -6.30%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.31%E -3.32%K -14.38%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-12 01:25
Betr (AU)🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.05%E -3.91%K -17.41%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-08-12 01:24
Betway🎯	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -14.22%E -4.37%K -6.32%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -4.31%E -3.32%K -14.38%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-08-11 22:44

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	3.51I 28.49%NM 22.17%	1.00I 100.00%NM 77.83%	28.5%	2026-08-11 19:34

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	3.74I 26.74%NM 24.92%	1.29I 77.52%NM 72.25%	33.00I 3.03%NM 2.82%	7.3%	2026-08-11 19:34

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.