Language:English
Roman Dolidze v Reinier de Ridder
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Roman Dolidze (Local)
Prediction 23.35%4.28fair odd
EV +0.412%
Edge +0.096%
Kelly +0.125%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 4.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.24%23.35%23.36%26.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.044.104.3028.57%24.73%24.39%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Reinier de Ridder (Visit)
Prediction 76.65%1.30fair odd
EV -3.42%
Edge -2.72%
Kelly -13.17%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.26
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.53%76.65%76.64%77.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.241.241.2684.75%80.68%80.65%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Roman Dolidze (Local): 23.35%; Reinier de Ridder (Visit): 76.65%. For Roman Dolidze (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.28. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.412%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV +0.412%E +0.096%K +0.125%G +0.001% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -5.72%E -4.65%K -24.88%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-21 14:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV +0.412%E +0.096%K +0.125%G +0.001% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -5.72%E -4.65%K -24.88%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-21 14:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -0.755%E -0.178%K -0.232%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -4.96%E -4.00%K -20.65%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-23 01:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.21I 23.75%NM 23.03%EV -1.69%E -0.401%K -0.526%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.97%EV -3.42%E -2.72%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-22 23:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -1.92%E -0.458%K -0.601%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -4.96%E -4.00%K -20.65%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-23 01:13 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.15%EV -3.09%E -0.745%K -0.981%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.85%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-19 19:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51%EV -4.26%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.49%EV -3.42%E -2.72%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-22 23:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51%EV -4.26%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.49%EV -3.42%E -2.72%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-22 01:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51%EV -4.26%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.49%EV -3.42%E -2.72%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-22 23:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -4.26%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-22 06:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -4.26%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-21 15:53 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.26%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.96%E -4.00%K -20.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-22 01:57 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -4.26%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -5.72%E -4.65%K -24.88%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -4.26%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -5.72%E -4.65%K -24.88%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -4.26%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -5.72%E -4.65%K -24.88%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -4.26%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -5.72%E -4.65%K -24.88%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -4.26%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -5.72%E -4.65%K -24.88%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -4.26%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -5.72%E -4.65%K -24.88%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-22 18:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -4.26%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -5.72%E -4.65%K -24.88%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -4.26%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -5.72%E -4.65%K -24.88%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -4.26%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -5.72%E -4.65%K -24.88%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.30%EV -5.43%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.70%EV -5.72%E -4.65%K -24.88%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-22 11:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.86%EV -5.43%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.14%EV -8.02%E -6.68%K -40.11%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-22 12:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -3.42%E -2.72%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-23 01:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-17 09:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-22 23:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-22 23:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-21 15:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-21 16:04 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.96%E -4.00%K -20.65%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-22 00:39 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.96%E -4.00%K -20.65%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-22 22:39 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.96%E -4.00%K -20.65%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-22 18:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.46%EV -10.10%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.54%EV -9.55%E -8.10%K -53.08%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -12.43%E -3.32%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-22 02:03 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -12.43%E -3.32%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-22 01:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -12.43%E -3.32%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.49%E -5.32%K -29.50%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-22 23:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -18.27%E -5.22%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.53%EV -3.42%E -2.72%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-23 01:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.28% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 77.72% | -0.3% | 2026-08-22 23:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-08-23 01:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-08-23 01:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-08-23 01:20 |
| Novig◎ | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.74% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.26% | 1.1% | 2026-08-23 01:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.94% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.06% | 1.4% | 2026-08-23 01:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.22% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.78% | 2.5% | 2026-08-23 01:20 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.17% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 7.0% | 2026-08-20 12:49 |