Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rodrigo Vera v Kangjie Zhu

Kickoff: 2026-05-30 08:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

49%

51%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rodrigo Vera (Local)

Prediction 49.25%2.03fair odd

EV +23.12%

Edge +9.25%

Kelly +15.41%

Growth +3.56%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.97%48.68%49.20%52.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.801.941.922.5055.56%51.55%52.08%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kangjie Zhu (Visit)

Prediction 50.75%1.97fair odd

EV +1.51%

Edge +0.753%

Kelly +1.51%

Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

47.78%51.32%50.80%62.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.531.841.852.0065.36%54.25%54.05%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rodrigo Vera (Local): 49.25%; Kangjie Zhu (Visit): 50.75%. For Rodrigo Vera (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.03. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +23.12%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +23.12%E +9.25%K +15.41%G +3.56%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -22.35%E -14.61%K -42.17%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-05-30 08:33
Caesars🎯	2.17I 46.08%NM 43.49%EV +6.87%E +3.16%K +5.87%G +0.403%	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -15.24%E -9.13%K -22.75%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-30 08:33
FanDuel🎯	2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV +4.40%E +2.08%K +3.93%G +0.173%	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -13.72%E -8.07%K -19.60%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-30 08:33
DraftKings🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -1.51%E -0.753%K -1.51%G +0.000%	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -10.17%E -5.74%K -13.20%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-30 08:32
Pinnacle🎯	1.98I 50.51%NM 49.10%EV -2.49%E -1.26%K -2.54%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.90%EV -3.06%E -1.60%K -3.36%G +0.000%	2.9%	2026-05-30 08:30
Unibet🎯	1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV -2.49%E -1.26%K -2.54%G +0.000%	1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -10.17%E -5.74%K -13.20%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-30 08:35
Bovada🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.97%E -2.04%K -4.18%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.09%E -2.72%K -5.85%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-05-30 06:27
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.97%E -2.04%K -4.18%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.09%E -2.72%K -5.85%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-05-30 06:40
TABtouch🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.97%E -2.04%K -4.18%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.11%E -3.30%K -7.18%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-30 08:30
NordicBet🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -3.97%E -2.04%K -4.18%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -11.18%E -6.39%K -14.91%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-05-30 08:33
PlayUp🎯	1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -4.95%E -2.57%K -5.33%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.11%E -3.30%K -7.18%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-05-30 00:59
Grosvenor🎯	1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -4.95%E -2.57%K -5.33%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 52.45%EV -11.18%E -6.39%K -14.91%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-05-30 08:34
Betsson🎯	1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -5.45%E -2.84%K -5.92%G +0.000%	1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -2.55%E -1.33%K -2.78%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-05-27 20:30
SportsBet🎯	1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -5.45%E -2.84%K -5.92%G +0.000%	1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -2.55%E -1.33%K -2.78%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-05-30 08:30
Bet Right🎯	1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -5.45%E -2.84%K -5.92%G +0.000%	1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -2.55%E -1.33%K -2.78%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-05-30 08:30
LeoVegas🎯	1.92I 52.08%NM 47.40%EV -5.45%E -2.84%K -5.92%G +0.000%	1.73I 57.80%NM 52.60%EV -12.20%E -7.05%K -16.71%G +0.000%	9.9%	2026-05-30 08:34
Betr (AU)🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 49.34%EV -5.94%E -3.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%	1.86I 53.76%NM 50.66%EV -5.60%E -3.01%K -6.51%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-30 06:40
888sport🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.94%E -3.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.11%E -3.30%K -7.18%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-05-30 00:50
BetAnything🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.94%E -3.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.12%E -3.89%K -8.58%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-29 18:29
Paddy Power🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.94%E -3.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.12%E -3.89%K -8.58%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-30 08:32
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -6.92%E -3.66%K -7.78%G +0.000%	1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -2.05%E -1.06%K -2.20%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-05-30 08:30
BetUS🎯	1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -6.92%E -3.66%K -7.78%G +0.000%	1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -2.05%E -1.06%K -2.20%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-05-30 08:29
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -7.42%E -3.94%K -8.43%G +0.000%	1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -2.55%E -1.33%K -2.78%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-30 08:30
Neds🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -7.91%E -4.23%K -9.09%G +0.000%	1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -1.54%E -0.793%K -1.64%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-28 12:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -7.91%E -4.23%K -9.09%G +0.000%	1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -1.54%E -0.793%K -1.64%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-28 12:29
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.91%E -4.23%K -9.09%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.09%E -2.72%K -5.85%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-30 08:32
Betway🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -8.89%E -4.81%K -10.46%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -6.11%E -3.30%K -7.18%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-05-30 08:32
Coolbet🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -9.88%E -5.40%K -11.90%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV +1.51%E +0.753%K +1.51%G +0.023%	4.6%	2026-05-24 16:49
Virgin Bet🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -9.88%E -5.40%K -11.90%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%EV -6.11%E -3.30%K -7.18%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-05-30 08:32
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -9.88%E -5.40%K -11.90%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%EV -6.11%E -3.30%K -7.18%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-05-30 08:32
Fliff🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -11.36%E -6.31%K -14.19%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -3.06%E -1.60%K -3.36%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-05-30 08:33

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Matchbook◎	2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25%	1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75%	0.5%	2026-05-30 08:29
Kalshi◎	1.00I 100.00%NM 99.01%	100.00I 1.00%NM 0.99%	1.0%	2026-05-30 08:40
ProphetX◎	1.94I 51.55%NM 50.89%	2.01I 49.75%NM 49.11%	1.3%	2026-05-30 08:31
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.92%	1.84I 54.35%NM 52.08%	4.3%	2026-05-30 08:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.92%	1.84I 54.35%NM 52.08%	4.3%	2026-05-30 08:35
Novig◎	1.00I 100.00%NM 93.02%	13.33I 7.50%NM 6.98%	7.5%	2026-05-30 08:36
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	2.08I 48.08%NM 43.48%	1.60I 62.50%NM 56.52%	10.6%	2026-05-30 08:34

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.88I 53.19%NM 48.67%	1.87I 53.48%NM 48.93%	38.00I 2.63%NM 2.41%	9.3%	2026-05-30 07:30