The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Rodrigo Sezinando v Theodor Berggren

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 23:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rodrigo Sezinando (Local)

Prediction 61.00%1.64fair odd
EV -1.80%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -2.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.49%61.06%60.95%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.551.561.6169.93%64.45%64.10%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Theodor Berggren (Visit)

Prediction 39.00%2.56fair odd
EV +0.629%
Edge +0.244%
Kelly +0.398%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 2.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.50%38.94%39.05%40.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.452.452.5845.45%40.76%40.82%38.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rodrigo Sezinando (Local): 61.00%; Theodor Berggren (Visit): 39.00%. For Theodor Berggren (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.56. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.58, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.629%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Bovada🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.47%EV -5.46%E -3.52%K -9.92%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.53%EV +0.629%E +0.244%K +0.398%G +0.003%3.3%2026-10-31 20:04
NordicBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -6.07%E -3.94%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -0.541%E -0.212%K -0.349%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-31 22:55
Caesars🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -6.07%E -3.94%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -0.541%E -0.212%K -0.349%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-31 22:45
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -6.68%E -4.36%K -12.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -0.541%E -0.212%K -0.349%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-31 20:39
FanDuel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.85%E -3.11%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.49%E -0.997%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-31 02:05
Coolbet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.85%E -3.11%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.49%E -0.997%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-31 21:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.68%E -4.36%K -12.59%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.49%E -0.997%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-31 20:40
Bet Right🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.68%E -4.36%K -12.59%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.49%E -0.997%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-31 23:10
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -7.29%E -4.79%K -14.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -2.49%E -0.997%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-31 22:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -7.29%E -4.79%K -14.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -2.49%E -0.997%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-31 20:35
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.51%E -5.67%K -17.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -2.49%E -0.997%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 02:03
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.51%E -5.67%K -17.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -2.49%E -0.997%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 02:20
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.44%EV -1.80%E -1.12%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.56%EV -4.05%E -1.65%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-31 23:05
BetUS🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.04%EV -4.24%E -2.70%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.96%EV -4.05%E -1.65%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-31 22:35
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.24%E -2.70%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.44%E -1.81%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-31 22:35
BetAnything🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.24%E -2.70%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.44%E -1.81%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-31 22:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.85%E -3.11%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -4.44%E -1.81%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-27 15:00
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.85%E -3.11%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.22%E -2.15%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-27 15:00
Unibet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.85%E -3.11%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.22%E -2.15%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-27 15:00
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.85%E -3.11%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.22%E -2.15%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-27 15:00
Bally Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.85%E -3.11%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.22%E -2.15%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-27 15:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.85%E -3.11%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.22%E -2.15%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-27 15:00
betPARX🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.85%E -3.11%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.22%E -2.15%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-27 15:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.85%E -3.11%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -5.22%E -2.15%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-27 15:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -1.80%E -1.12%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -6.39%E -2.66%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-31 23:10
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.24%E -2.70%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.39%E -2.66%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-31 22:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.24%E -2.70%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.39%E -2.66%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-31 22:40
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.68%E -4.36%K -12.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.39%E -2.66%K -4.57%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 23:10
ReBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.75%EV -1.80%E -1.12%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 40.25%EV -6.78%E -2.84%K -4.88%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-31 22:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -2.41%E -1.50%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -8.34%E -3.55%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-31 22:30
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 60.61%EV -12.77%E -8.93%K -29.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.39%EV -14.19%E -6.45%K -11.83%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-27 15:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.95%2.56I 39.06%NM 39.05%0.0%2026-10-31 23:05
ProphetX◎1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57%0.5%2026-10-31 23:10
Novig◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%0.6%2026-10-31 23:10
Polymarket◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%0.9%2026-10-31 23:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.23%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.77%1.1%2026-10-31 23:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.23%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.77%1.1%2026-10-31 23:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 61.87%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.13%1.7%2026-10-31 23:10
Kalshi◎1.59I 62.89%NM 61.69%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.31%2.0%2026-10-31 23:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.44%2.51I 39.84%NM 36.72%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84%8.5%2026-10-30 21:30

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