The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Rodrigo Nascimento v Alexander Romanov

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rodrigo Nascimento (Local)

Prediction 28.17%3.55fair odd
EV +4.21%
Edge +1.14%
Kelly +1.56%
Growth +0.066%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.10%28.17%28.17%29.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.503.453.7030.77%28.61%28.99%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alexander Romanov (Visit)

Prediction 71.83%1.39fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -6.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.50%71.83%71.83%74.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.271.241.3681.97%78.74%80.65%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rodrigo Nascimento (Local): 28.17%; Alexander Romanov (Visit): 71.83%. For Rodrigo Nascimento (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.55. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.21%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.10%EV +4.21%E +1.14%K +1.56%G +0.066%1.24I 80.65%NM 74.90%EV -10.92%E -8.81%K -45.52%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-11 22:54
Unibet (NL)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.10%EV +4.21%E +1.14%K +1.56%G +0.066%1.24I 80.65%NM 74.90%EV -10.92%E -8.81%K -45.52%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-11 22:55
Unibet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.10%EV +4.21%E +1.14%K +1.56%G +0.066%1.24I 80.65%NM 74.90%EV -10.92%E -8.81%K -45.52%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-11 22:55
BetOnline.ag🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV +1.39%E +0.387%K +0.536%G +0.007%1.32I 75.76%NM 73.17%EV -5.18%E -3.92%K -16.18%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-11 22:54
Grosvenor🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.44%EV -2.83%E -0.820%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.56%EV -10.92%E -8.81%K -45.52%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-11 22:55
Bally Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.44%EV -2.83%E -0.820%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.56%EV -10.92%E -8.81%K -45.52%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-11 22:55
Neds🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.24%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.18%E -3.92%K -16.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-11 22:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.24%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.18%E -3.92%K -16.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-11 22:40
LeoVegas🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -4.24%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 73.43%EV -11.64%E -9.47%K -50.62%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-11 22:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -4.24%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 73.59%EV -12.36%E -10.13%K -56.19%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-11 22:54
FanDuel🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -8.46%E -2.60%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -2.30%E -1.69%K -6.40%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-11 19:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.