The School of Odds
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Rodolfo Vieira v Robert Bryczek

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 23:15 UTC

Final: Rodolfo Vieira 1–0 Robert Bryczek

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rodolfo Vieira (Local)

Prediction 60.22%1.66fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -3.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.82%60.13%60.30%61.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.591.601.6268.03%62.94%62.50%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Robert Bryczek (Visit)

Prediction 39.78%2.51fair odd
EV -0.955%
Edge -0.383%
Kelly -0.641%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.75%39.87%39.70%41.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.142.382.352.4946.73%42.07%42.55%40.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rodolfo Vieira (Local): 60.22%; Robert Bryczek (Visit): 39.78%. For Robert Bryczek (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.51. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.49, with an expected value of -0.955%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -2.44%E -1.51%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -6.52%E -2.78%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-26 15:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.04%E -1.89%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -6.52%E -2.78%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-26 18:30
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -3.04%E -1.89%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -8.51%E -3.70%K -6.55%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-22 08:44
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.88%EV -3.64%E -2.28%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 39.12%EV -0.955%E -0.383%K -0.641%G +0.000%2.7%2026-09-26 20:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.64%E -2.28%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.52%E -2.78%K -4.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-25 15:04
Virgin Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.64%E -2.28%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.52%E -2.78%K -4.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-26 18:30
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.64%E -2.28%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.52%E -2.78%K -4.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-26 18:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.64%E -2.28%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.52%E -2.78%K -4.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-26 18:30
BetRivers🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.64%E -2.28%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.52%E -2.78%K -4.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-26 18:30
Unibet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.64%E -2.28%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.52%E -2.78%K -4.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-26 18:30
betPARX🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.64%E -2.28%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.52%E -2.78%K -4.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-26 18:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.64%E -2.28%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.52%E -2.78%K -4.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-26 18:30
Bally Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.64%E -2.28%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.52%E -2.78%K -4.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-26 18:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.64%E -2.28%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.52%E -2.78%K -4.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-26 18:35
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.18%EV -3.64%E -2.28%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.82%EV -7.72%E -3.33%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-26 15:25
Bovada🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -4.25%E -2.67%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -2.55%E -1.04%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-26 20:14
ReBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.55%EV -4.25%E -2.67%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.45%EV -2.94%E -1.21%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-26 20:45
BetUS🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -4.25%E -2.67%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -3.74%E -1.55%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-26 20:45
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -4.25%E -2.67%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -3.74%E -1.55%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-26 20:00
BetMGM🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.25%E -2.67%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.53%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-26 19:05
BetAnything🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.25%E -2.67%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.53%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-26 20:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.89%EV -4.85%E -3.07%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.11%EV -2.15%E -0.873%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-26 20:45
Coolbet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.89%EV -4.85%E -3.07%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.11%EV -2.15%E -0.873%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-26 22:04
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.85%E -3.07%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.53%E -1.89%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 20:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.85%E -3.07%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.52%E -2.78%K -4.83%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-26 20:50
Caesars🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.45%E -3.47%K -9.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.55%E -1.04%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-25 15:55
Bet Right🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.65%E -4.29%K -12.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.55%E -1.04%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 22:50
Grosvenor🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 59.28%EV -11.47%E -7.80%K -24.41%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 40.72%EV -14.88%E -6.95%K -13.05%G +0.000%14.8%2026-09-26 18:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.95%2.56I 39.06%NM 39.05%0.0%2026-09-26 23:10
Matchbook◎1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90%0.4%2026-09-26 23:10
Novig◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.82%2.53I 39.53%NM 39.18%0.9%2026-09-26 23:10
ProphetX◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.02%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.98%1.8%2026-09-26 23:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.03%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.10%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87%7.0%2026-09-26 02:05