Language:English
Rodolfo Vieira v Eric McConico
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Rodolfo Vieira (Local)
Prediction 71.57%1.40fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -5.27%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.37
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.81%71.41%71.58%73.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.331.331.3776.92%74.94%75.19%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Eric McConico (Visit)
Prediction 28.43%3.52fair odd
EV +0.925%
Edge +0.261%
Kelly +0.363%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 3.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.95%28.59%28.42%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.333.353.5533.33%30.06%29.85%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rodolfo Vieira (Local): 71.57%; Eric McConico (Visit): 28.43%. For Eric McConico (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.52. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.925%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.75%EV -4.81%E -3.62%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.25%EV +0.925%E +0.261%K +0.363%G +0.003% | 3.4% | 2026-04-23 21:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.05%EV -6.24%E -4.77%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.95%EV +0.925%E +0.261%K +0.363%G +0.003% | 4.5% | 2026-04-22 21:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.05%EV -6.24%E -4.77%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.95%EV +0.925%E +0.261%K +0.363%G +0.003% | 4.5% | 2026-04-22 21:24 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -4.81%E -3.62%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -0.496%E -0.142%K -0.199%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-23 22:16 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.23%EV -4.81%E -3.62%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.77%EV -1.63%E -0.472%K -0.664%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-22 21:09 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.81%E -3.62%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -3.34%E -0.982%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-22 18:24 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.81%E -3.62%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -3.34%E -0.982%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-22 12:44 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.81%E -3.62%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -3.34%E -0.982%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.53%E -4.19%K -17.27%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -3.34%E -0.982%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-22 12:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.53%E -4.19%K -17.27%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -3.34%E -0.982%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-22 12:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.96%E -5.35%K -23.19%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -3.34%E -0.982%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 07:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -4.10%E -3.06%K -12.05%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -4.76%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-23 16:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.81%E -3.62%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.76%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 20:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.81%E -3.62%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.76%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.81%E -3.62%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.76%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 20:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.81%E -3.62%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.76%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 20:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.81%E -3.62%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.76%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 20:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.81%E -3.62%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.76%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.81%E -3.62%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.76%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.81%E -3.62%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.76%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.81%E -3.62%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.76%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.81%E -3.62%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.76%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.81%E -3.62%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.76%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.81%E -3.62%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.76%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.81%E -3.62%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.76%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 16:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.53%E -4.19%K -17.27%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.76%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 16:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.22%EV -3.38%E -2.50%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.78%EV -5.05%E -1.51%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-23 16:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.81%E -3.62%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -6.18%E -1.87%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-22 20:34 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -4.10%E -3.06%K -12.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -7.60%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-22 11:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -4.10%E -3.06%K -12.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -7.60%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-22 11:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -4.10%E -3.06%K -12.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -7.60%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-22 18:49 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.81%E -3.62%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.60%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 16:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.52%EV -3.38%E -2.50%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.48%EV -8.17%E -2.53%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 13:34 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.15%EV -1.95%E -1.42%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.85%EV -8.46%E -2.63%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-21 18:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -2.66%E -1.96%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -9.03%E -2.82%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 23:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -2.66%E -1.96%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -11.87%E -3.83%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-21 15:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -2.66%E -1.96%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -11.87%E -3.83%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-21 06:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -2.66%E -1.96%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -14.71%E -4.90%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-22 12:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -2.66%E -1.96%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -14.71%E -4.90%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-22 11:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 71.43% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.57% | 0.0% | 2026-04-24 00:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.98% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02% | 1.4% | 2026-04-23 21:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.98% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02% | 1.4% | 2026-04-23 21:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.13% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.87% | 1.9% | 2026-04-23 20:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.55% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.45% | 2.0% | 2026-04-23 19:34 |
| Novig◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.16% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.84% | 2.6% | 2026-04-23 23:44 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88% | 4.9% | 2026-04-23 16:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16% | 5.3% | 2026-04-21 23:20 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.67% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.49% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.7% | 2026-04-22 12:10 |