The School of Odds
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Rodolfo Bellato v Christian Edwards

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 22:47 UTC

Final: Rodolfo Bellato 0–1 Christian Edwards

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rodolfo Bellato (Local)

Prediction 64.99%1.54fair odd
EV +0.727%
Edge +0.469%
Kelly +1.32%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.76%64.87%65.01%67.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.471.471.5573.53%68.03%68.03%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Christian Edwards (Visit)

Prediction 35.01%2.86fair odd
EV +1.54%
Edge +0.532%
Kelly +0.812%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.71%35.13%34.99%39.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.682.652.9041.67%37.34%37.74%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rodolfo Bellato (Local): 64.99%; Christian Edwards (Visit): 35.01%. For Christian Edwards (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.86. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.54%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Bet Right🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -8.37%E -5.94%K -20.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV +1.54%E +0.532%K +0.812%G +0.013%5.4%2026-09-26 22:45
Pinnacle🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.97%EV -4.47%E -3.04%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.03%EV -0.208%E -0.073%K -0.113%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-26 22:45
Bovada🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -4.47%E -3.04%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -1.96%E -0.700%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-26 22:39
DraftKings🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -5.12%E -3.51%K -11.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -1.96%E -0.700%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-26 22:45
Caesars🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.77%E -3.98%K -12.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.96%E -0.700%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-26 22:41
BetOnline.ag🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.41%EV -4.47%E -3.04%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59%EV -2.66%E -0.957%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-26 22:45
BetUS🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.41%EV -4.47%E -3.04%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59%EV -2.66%E -0.957%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-26 22:20
ReBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.82%E -2.58%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -3.71%E -1.35%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-26 22:20
Coolbet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.82%E -2.58%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -3.71%E -1.35%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-26 22:40
BetAnything🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.82%E -2.58%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -3.71%E -1.35%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-26 22:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.77%E -3.98%K -12.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -3.71%E -1.35%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 22:45
NordicBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -3.17%E -2.13%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -5.46%E -2.02%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-26 22:40
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.82%E -2.58%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -5.46%E -2.02%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-26 22:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.82%E -2.58%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -7.21%E -2.72%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 22:20
Betsson🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.47%E -3.04%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -7.21%E -2.72%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-26 22:40
BetRivers🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.47%E -3.04%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -7.21%E -2.72%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-26 22:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.47%E -3.04%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -7.21%E -2.72%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-26 22:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.47%E -3.04%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -7.21%E -2.72%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-26 22:40
Unibet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.47%E -3.04%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -7.21%E -2.72%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-26 22:39
TABtouch🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.47%E -3.04%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -7.21%E -2.72%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-26 22:40
betPARX🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.47%E -3.04%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -7.21%E -2.72%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-26 22:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.47%E -3.04%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -7.21%E -2.72%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-26 22:40
Bally Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.47%E -3.04%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -7.21%E -2.72%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-26 22:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -6.42%E -4.46%K -14.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -8.96%E -3.45%K -5.60%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-26 22:45
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -2.52%E -1.68%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -12.46%E -4.99%K -8.31%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-26 22:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV +0.077%E +0.050%K +0.143%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -14.21%E -5.80%K -9.80%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-26 22:05
Grosvenor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.12%EV -11.62%E -8.54%K -32.28%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 35.88%EV -14.91%E -6.14%K -10.43%G +0.000%14.7%2026-09-26 22:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV +0.727%E +0.469%K +1.32%G +0.010%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -15.96%E -6.65%K -11.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-26 12:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.84%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.16%0.1%2026-09-26 22:35
Matchbook◎1.53I 65.36%NM 65.15%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.85%0.3%2026-09-26 22:45
Novig◎1.50I 66.67%NM 65.91%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.09%1.1%2026-09-26 22:45
ProphetX◎1.52I 65.79%NM 64.81%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.19%1.5%2026-09-26 22:45

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.29%2.57I 38.91%NM 35.87%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84%8.5%2026-09-26 22:41