The School of Odds

RJ Harris v Alvin Hines

2026-07-18 21:35 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

RJ Harris (Local)

Prediction 44.50%2.25fair odd
EV +0.569%
Edge +0.252%
Kelly +0.451%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.49%44.46%44.44%45.26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.082.152.152.2648%47%47%44%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Alvin Hines (Visit)

Prediction 55.50%1.80fair odd
EV -3.98%
Edge -2.30%
Kelly -5.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.74%55.54%55.56%57.51%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.671.711.711.7360%59%58%58%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%EV +0.569%E +0.252%K +0.451%G +0.003%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.51%EV -7.31%E -4.38%K -10.92%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-14 03:20
Bovada2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -1.21%E -0.546%K -0.993%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -5.65%E -3.32%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-14 03:19
BetOnline.ag2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.10%E -0.955%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -5.09%E -2.98%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-14 03:20
Coolbet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.10%E -0.955%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -5.09%E -2.98%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-14 04:09
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -2.10%E -0.955%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -6.20%E -3.67%K -8.99%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-14 03:20
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.10%E -0.955%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.76%E -4.02%K -9.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-14 03:20
Betsson2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -4.33%E -2.01%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.54%E -2.64%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-14 03:19
NordicBet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -4.33%E -2.01%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.54%E -2.64%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-14 03:19
SportsBet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.33%E -2.01%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.65%E -3.32%K -8.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-14 03:20
FanDuel2.14I 46.73%NM 43.98%EV -4.77%E -2.23%K -4.19%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.02%EV -6.76%E -4.02%K -9.94%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-14 03:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.55%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.98%E -2.30%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-14 03:19
888sport2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.55%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.98%E -2.30%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-14 03:19
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.55%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.98%E -2.30%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-14 03:18
PointsBet (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.55%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.98%E -2.30%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-14 03:20
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.55%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.54%E -2.64%K -6.30%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-14 03:20
BetAnything2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.55%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.09%E -2.98%K -7.17%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-14 03:20
Unibet (UK)2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -7.44%E -3.58%K -6.89%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -4.54%E -2.64%K -6.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-14 03:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%1.1%2026-07-14 05:34
Novig2.27I 44.05%NM 43.11%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.89%2.2%2026-07-14 04:25
Matchbook2.04I 49.02%NM 44.72%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.28%9.6%2026-07-14 07:44
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 66.67%48.5%2026-07-14 07:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.02I 49.50%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 66.67%48.5%2026-07-14 07:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.02I 49.50%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 66.67%48.5%2026-07-14 04:05