The School of Odds

Rizvan Kuniev v Tyrell Fortune

2026-07-25 09:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Rizvan Kuniev (Local)

Prediction 71.58%1.40fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -1.95%
Kelly -7.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.13%71.58%71.58%72.04%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.301.321.301.3677%76%77%74%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Tyrell Fortune (Visit)

Prediction 28.42%3.52fair odd
EV -4.81%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -2.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.96%28.42%28.42%28.87%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.353.353.353.3530%30%30%30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag1.36I 73.53%NM 71.13%EV -2.65%E -1.95%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -4.81%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-15 19:29
NordicBet1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -6.94%E -5.34%K -23.14%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -4.81%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-15 19:29
Betsson1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -6.94%E -5.34%K -23.14%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -4.81%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-15 19:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket1.28I 78.13%NM 72.23%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.77%8.2%2026-07-15 23:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet1.28I 78.13%NM 73.57%3.77I 26.53%NM 24.98%65.00I 1.54%NM 1.45%6.2%2026-07-15 19:29