Language:English
Ricky Turcios v Alberto Montes
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ricky Turcios (Local)
Prediction 36.93%2.71fair odd
EV +1.55%
Edge +0.564%
Kelly +0.886%
Growth +0.014%
assuming max odds 2.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.52%36.81%36.98%37.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.582.552.7540.00%38.77%39.22%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alberto Montes (Visit)
Prediction 63.07%1.59fair odd
EV -2.87%
Edge -1.86%
Kelly -5.31%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.54
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.03%63.19%63.02%65.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.511.511.5468.97%66.15%66.23%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ricky Turcios (Local): 36.93%; Alberto Montes (Visit): 63.07%. For Ricky Turcios (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.71. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.55%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV +1.55%E +0.564%K +0.886%G +0.014% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -6.65%E -4.50%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-07 23:31 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +1.55%E +0.564%K +0.886%G +0.014% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -8.54%E -5.89%K -18.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 23:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -0.296%E -0.110%K -0.174%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -6.65%E -4.50%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-08 00:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -0.296%E -0.110%K -0.174%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -6.65%E -4.50%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-08 00:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -2.14%E -0.808%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -3.50%E -2.29%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-08 00:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -2.14%E -0.808%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-06 21:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -2.14%E -0.808%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-08 00:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -2.14%E -0.808%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-06 21:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.93%EV -2.88%E -1.10%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.07%EV -2.87%E -1.86%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-07 22:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -3.99%E -1.53%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -2.87%E -1.86%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-07 20:32 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.99%E -1.53%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.50%E -2.29%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-08 00:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.99%E -1.53%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-08 00:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.99%E -1.53%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-08 00:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -4.73%E -1.83%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -3.50%E -2.29%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -4.73%E -1.83%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -3.50%E -2.29%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-06 13:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.10%EV -5.47%E -2.14%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.90%EV -4.76%E -3.15%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.50%E -2.29%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-06 13:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.13%E -2.72%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 13:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.13%E -2.72%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 13:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.13%E -2.72%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 13:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.76%E -3.15%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 13:36 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.76%E -3.15%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 13:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.76%E -3.15%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 13:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.76%E -3.15%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 13:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.76%E -3.15%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 13:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.76%E -3.15%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 13:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.76%E -3.15%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 13:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.76%E -3.15%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 13:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.83%E -2.29%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.76%E -3.15%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 13:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -6.20%E -2.44%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -2.87%E -1.86%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-08 00:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.50%E -2.29%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 13:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.50%E -2.29%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 16:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.50%E -2.29%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-08 00:29 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.50%E -2.29%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 13:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -4.76%E -3.15%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-07 23:40 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -4.76%E -3.15%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-07 12:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -7.28%E -4.95%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-07 23:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.74% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 63.26% | 0.1% | 2026-03-08 00:28 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 35.16% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.84% | 0.1% | 2026-03-08 00:29 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40% | 0.5% | 2026-03-08 00:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40% | 0.5% | 2026-03-08 00:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40% | 0.5% | 2026-03-08 00:04 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91% | 0.6% | 2026-03-08 00:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35% | 0.9% | 2026-03-08 00:25 |
| Novig◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.32% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.68% | 2.0% | 2026-03-08 00:30 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.15% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.01% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.5% | 2026-03-06 13:36 |