Language:English
Ricky Simon v Adrian Yanez
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ricky Simon (Local)
Prediction 60.35%1.66fair odd
EV +2.59%
Edge +1.52%
Kelly +3.70%
Growth +0.096%
assuming max odds 1.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.96%60.15%60.20%62.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.601.601.7064.94%62.35%62.50%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Adrian Yanez (Visit)
Prediction 39.65%2.52fair odd
EV +1.12%
Edge +0.439%
Kelly +0.722%
Growth +0.008%
assuming max odds 2.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.65%39.85%39.80%44.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.162.352.382.5546.30%42.50%42.02%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ricky Simon (Local): 60.35%; Adrian Yanez (Visit): 39.65%. For Ricky Simon (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.66. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.59%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV +2.59%E +1.52%K +3.70%G +0.096% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -14.35%E -6.64%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-24 20:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV +2.59%E +1.52%K +3.70%G +0.096% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -14.35%E -6.64%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-24 20:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV +0.777%E +0.465%K +1.16%G +0.009% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -12.76%E -5.80%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-22 08:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV +0.777%E +0.465%K +1.16%G +0.009% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -12.76%E -5.80%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-23 17:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -1.64%E -1.00%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -9.59%E -4.21%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-27 07:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -1.64%E -1.00%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -9.59%E -4.21%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-27 07:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -1.64%E -1.00%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -9.59%E -4.21%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-27 07:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -1.64%E -1.00%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -9.59%E -4.21%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-27 07:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -1.64%E -1.00%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -9.59%E -4.21%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-27 07:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -1.64%E -1.00%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -9.59%E -4.21%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-27 07:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -1.64%E -1.00%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -9.59%E -4.21%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-27 07:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -1.64%E -1.00%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -9.59%E -4.21%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-27 07:44 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -1.64%E -1.00%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -9.59%E -4.21%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-27 07:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -1.64%E -1.00%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -9.59%E -4.21%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-27 07:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -1.64%E -1.00%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -9.59%E -4.21%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-27 07:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -1.64%E -1.00%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -9.59%E -4.21%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-27 07:49 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.24%E -1.38%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -8.79%E -3.82%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-27 07:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.20%EV -3.45%E -2.15%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.80%EV -4.04%E -1.67%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-28 01:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.45%E -2.15%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-27 12:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.45%E -2.15%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-27 12:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.45%E -2.15%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.81%E -2.90%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-27 14:34 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.45%E -2.15%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.81%E -2.90%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-28 00:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.55%EV -4.05%E -2.55%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.45%EV -3.24%E -1.33%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-27 14:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -4.05%E -2.55%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -4.04%E -1.67%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-28 03:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.05%E -2.55%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-27 20:14 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.05%E -2.55%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-27 16:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.08%EV -4.65%E -2.95%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.92%EV -1.66%E -0.668%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-28 00:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.99%EV -4.65%E -2.95%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 39.01%EV -2.05%E -0.831%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-28 02:14 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.65%E -2.95%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-27 20:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.65%E -2.95%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-27 20:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.65%E -2.95%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.81%E -2.90%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-28 00:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -5.26%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -0.864%E -0.345%K -0.576%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-28 00:24 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.26%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.85%E -1.16%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-27 18:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -5.26%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV -4.43%E -1.84%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-28 01:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.26%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-28 01:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.26%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.62%E -2.36%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-28 01:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.26%E -3.35%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.62%E -2.36%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-28 01:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -5.86%E -3.76%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -2.85%E -1.16%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-28 00:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.86%E -3.76%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-27 19:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.46%E -4.17%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.85%E -1.16%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-27 22:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.46%E -4.17%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-27 17:24 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -7.07%E -4.59%K -13.09%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV +1.12%E +0.439%K +0.722%G +0.008% | 4.2% | 2026-03-27 23:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.71% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 39.29% | -0.2% | 2026-03-28 01:39 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10% | 0.6% | 2026-03-28 01:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42% | 0.7% | 2026-03-28 00:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42% | 0.7% | 2026-03-28 00:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42% | 0.7% | 2026-03-28 00:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42% | 0.7% | 2026-03-27 23:50 |
| Novig◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.05% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95% | 0.9% | 2026-03-28 01:35 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.25% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.75% | 3.1% | 2026-03-28 02:15 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.34% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.73% | 48.00I 2.08%NM 1.92% | 8.5% | 2026-03-28 01:45 |