The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Renato Moicano v Tom Nolan

Kickoff: 2026-11-01 02:25 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

41 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Renato Moicano (Local)

Prediction 54.06%1.85fair odd
EV -1.08%
Edge -0.589%
Kelly -1.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.59%53.91%54.26%56.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.771.771.8360.98%56.47%56.50%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tom Nolan (Visit)

Prediction 45.94%2.18fair odd
EV +0.158%
Edge +0.072%
Kelly +0.134%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.96%46.09%45.74%48.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.812.042.022.1855.25%49.07%49.50%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Renato Moicano (Local): 54.06%; Tom Nolan (Visit): 45.94%. For Tom Nolan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.177. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.180, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.158%.

Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -7.56%E -4.42%K -10.65%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV +0.158%E +0.072%K +0.134%G +0.000%4.4%2026-11-01 01:21
Pinnacle🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.85%EV -4.32%E -2.44%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.15%EV -1.22%E -0.568%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.0%2026-11-01 02:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -5.40%E -3.09%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -1.22%E -0.568%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.7%2026-11-01 02:09
NordicBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -6.48%E -3.75%K -8.88%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -1.22%E -0.568%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-01 02:00
ReBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -5.40%E -3.09%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -1.68%E -0.785%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.9%2026-11-01 02:10
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -5.94%E -3.42%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -1.68%E -0.785%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-01 02:09
BetUS🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -5.94%E -3.42%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -1.68%E -0.785%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-01 02:09
Betsson🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -7.56%E -4.42%K -10.65%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -2.60%E -1.23%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-01 02:00
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.32%E -2.44%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.52%E -1.68%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-01 02:08
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.32%E -2.44%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.52%E -1.68%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-01 01:40
SportsBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.32%E -2.44%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.52%E -1.68%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-01 01:40
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.73%E -5.82%K -14.52%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -3.52%E -1.68%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-01 01:40
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.73%E -5.82%K -14.52%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -3.52%E -1.68%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-01 01:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.73%E -5.82%K -14.52%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -3.52%E -1.68%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-01 01:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -3.78%E -2.12%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -4.44%E -2.13%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-01 02:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.40%E -3.09%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.44%E -2.13%K -4.11%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-01 02:10
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.40%E -3.09%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.81%E -2.84%K -5.54%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-01 01:40
BetAnything🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.94%E -3.42%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.81%E -2.84%K -5.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-01 02:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%EV -9.19%E -5.47%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -5.81%E -2.84%K -5.54%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-01 02:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.56%EV -11.35%E -6.92%K -17.73%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.44%EV -5.81%E -2.84%K -5.54%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-01 02:10
Coolbet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -1.62%E -0.889%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -7.19%E -3.56%K -7.05%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-29 05:15
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -1.08%E -0.589%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -8.11%E -4.06%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-31 12:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -1.08%E -0.589%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -8.11%E -4.06%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.6%2026-11-01 00:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -1.62%E -0.889%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -8.11%E -4.06%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-31 12:30
Bet Right🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.70%E -1.50%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.11%E -4.06%K -8.11%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-01 02:10
TAB🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.70%E -1.50%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.11%E -4.06%K -8.11%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-31 22:00
Fliff🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.32%E -2.44%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -8.11%E -4.06%K -8.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-01 01:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -1.08%E -0.589%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -9.03%E -4.56%K -9.22%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-01 00:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -1.08%E -0.589%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -9.03%E -4.56%K -9.22%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-01 00:40
Unibet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -1.08%E -0.589%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -9.03%E -4.56%K -9.22%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-01 00:40
BetRivers🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -1.08%E -0.589%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -9.49%E -4.82%K -9.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-01 00:40
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -1.08%E -0.589%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -9.49%E -4.82%K -9.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-01 00:40
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -1.08%E -0.589%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -9.49%E -4.82%K -9.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-01 00:40
Bally Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -1.08%E -0.589%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -9.49%E -4.82%K -9.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-01 00:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -1.08%E -0.589%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -9.49%E -4.82%K -9.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-01 00:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -1.08%E -0.589%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -9.49%E -4.82%K -9.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-01 00:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -1.08%E -0.589%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -9.49%E -4.82%K -9.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-01 00:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV -2.16%E -1.19%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -9.49%E -4.82%K -9.78%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-31 15:10
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -1.08%E -0.589%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -10.41%E -5.34%K -10.96%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-29 10:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.56%EV -4.86%E -2.76%K -6.40%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.44%EV -10.41%E -5.34%K -10.96%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-31 12:00
Grosvenor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.01%EV -9.73%E -5.82%K -14.52%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 47.99%EV -16.84%E -9.30%K -20.79%G +0.000%15.1%2026-11-01 00:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.81I 55.25%NM 55.31%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.69%-0.1%2026-11-01 02:10
Novig◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 44.31%0.3%2026-11-01 02:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.27%0.4%2026-11-01 02:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.50%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.50%0.8%2026-11-01 02:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.50%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.50%0.8%2026-11-01 02:10
Kalshi◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-11-01 01:15
Polymarket◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.0%2026-11-01 01:25
ProphetX◎1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%3.9%2026-11-01 02:00

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