Language:English
Renato Moicano v Chris Duncan
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Renato Moicano (Local)
Prediction 44.74%2.23fair odd
EV +5.15%
Edge +2.19%
Kelly +3.81%
Growth +0.196%
assuming max odds 2.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.81%44.54%44.79%46.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.152.152.3548.78%46.55%46.51%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Chris Duncan (Visit)
Prediction 55.26%1.81fair odd
EV -0.538%
Edge -0.299%
Kelly -0.673%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.25%55.46%55.21%59.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.711.711.8061.73%58.52%58.48%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Renato Moicano (Local): 44.74%; Chris Duncan (Visit): 55.26%. For Renato Moicano (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.23. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.15%.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV +5.15%E +2.19%K +3.81%G +0.196% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -10.48%E -6.47%K -16.91%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-03 12:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV +5.15%E +2.19%K +3.81%G +0.196% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -10.48%E -6.47%K -16.91%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-03 12:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%EV -0.670%E -0.302%K -0.549%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.22%EV -8.27%E -4.98%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-05 02:04 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -1.56%E -0.711%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -5.51%E -3.22%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-04 17:44 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -1.56%E -0.711%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -6.62%E -3.91%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-05 00:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.56%E -0.711%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.72%E -4.62%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-04 13:29 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -2.46%E -1.13%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -7.17%E -4.27%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-05 00:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -2.46%E -1.13%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -7.17%E -4.27%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-05 00:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -2.46%E -1.13%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -7.17%E -4.27%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-05 00:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -2.46%E -1.13%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -7.17%E -4.27%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-05 00:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -2.46%E -1.13%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -7.17%E -4.27%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-05 00:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -2.46%E -1.13%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -7.17%E -4.27%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-05 00:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -2.46%E -1.13%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -7.17%E -4.27%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-05 00:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -2.46%E -1.13%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -7.17%E -4.27%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-05 00:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -2.46%E -1.13%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -7.17%E -4.27%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-05 00:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -2.46%E -1.13%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -7.17%E -4.27%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-05 00:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -2.46%E -1.13%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -7.17%E -4.27%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-05 00:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -2.46%E -1.13%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -7.17%E -4.27%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-05 00:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -2.46%E -1.13%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -7.17%E -4.27%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-05 00:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -3.35%E -1.55%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -3.85%E -2.21%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-05 01:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -3.35%E -1.55%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -3.85%E -2.21%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-04 17:09 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -3.80%E -1.77%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.72%E -4.62%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-05 02:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.41%EV -4.25%E -1.99%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.59%EV -1.64%E -0.923%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-04-04 21:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.68%EV -4.70%E -2.21%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.32%EV -4.96%E -2.88%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-04 17:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.09%EV -4.70%E -2.21%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.91%EV -7.17%E -4.27%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-04 21:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.50%EV -5.14%E -2.43%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.50%EV -2.20%E -1.24%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-05 02:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.14%E -2.43%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.96%E -2.88%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-05 01:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.20%E -1.24%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-05 02:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.20%E -1.24%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-04 21:24 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -3.85%E -2.21%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-04 17:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -3.85%E -2.21%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-04 23:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.41%E -2.55%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-05 01:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.41%E -2.55%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-04 21:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.41%E -2.55%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-04 17:09 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.41%E -2.55%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-05 01:49 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.41%E -2.55%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-04 17:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.41%E -2.55%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-04 23:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.51%E -3.22%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-05 01:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.51%E -3.22%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-05 02:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -8.28%E -4.04%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -0.538%E -0.299%K -0.673%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-05 02:08 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -8.28%E -4.04%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -2.20%E -1.24%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-05 01:04 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -8.28%E -4.04%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -2.20%E -1.24%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-05 01:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -8.28%E -4.04%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -6.62%E -3.91%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-04 23:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.41% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.59% | 0.1% | 2026-04-04 21:29 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.91% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 55.09% | 0.3% | 2026-04-05 02:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.91% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 55.09% | 0.3% | 2026-04-05 02:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22% | 0.6% | 2026-04-05 02:09 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.25I 44.44%NM 44.17% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.83% | 0.6% | 2026-04-05 01:49 |
| Novig◎ | 2.21I 45.25%NM 44.89% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.11% | 0.8% | 2026-04-05 02:09 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80% | 1.9% | 2026-04-05 01:49 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06% | 2.5% | 2026-04-05 01:55 |