The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Renato Moicano v Brian Ortega

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 21:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Renato Moicano (Local)

Prediction 65.44%1.53fair odd
EV +2.09%
Edge +1.34%
Kelly +3.74%
Growth +0.078%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.76%65.25%65.53%66.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.451.451.5675.19%68.93%68.97%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brian Ortega (Visit)

Prediction 34.56%2.89fair odd
EV +0.214%
Edge +0.074%
Kelly +0.113%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.03%34.75%34.47%38.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.722.752.9040.00%36.71%36.36%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Renato Moicano (Local): 65.44%; Brian Ortega (Visit): 34.56%. For Renato Moicano (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.53. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.56, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.09%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.76%EV +2.09%E +1.34%K +3.74%G +0.078%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.24%EV -12.92%E -5.13%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-17 03:05
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -1.83%E -1.22%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -9.12%E -3.47%K -5.59%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-06 13:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -1.83%E -1.22%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -9.12%E -3.47%K -5.59%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-13 00:19
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -1.83%E -1.22%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -9.46%E -3.61%K -5.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-06 13:53
TAB🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -1.83%E -1.22%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -10.15%E -3.91%K -6.35%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-12 20:20
Coolbet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -2.49%E -1.67%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -6.70%E -2.48%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-05 23:04
SportsBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.34%EV -3.14%E -2.12%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%EV -7.73%E -2.90%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-15 00:13
BetOnline.ag🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.65%EV -3.80%E -2.58%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.35%EV -2.90%E -1.03%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-14 23:48
BetAnything🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -3.80%E -2.58%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -3.24%E -1.16%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-14 18:41
Bovada🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -3.80%E -2.58%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -3.24%E -1.16%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-14 18:39
Caesars🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.80%E -2.58%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -4.97%E -1.81%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-13 18:02
FanDuel🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.23%EV -3.80%E -2.58%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.77%EV -8.77%E -3.32%K -5.35%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-15 00:14
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.11%E -3.52%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.24%E -1.16%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-14 19:30
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.11%E -3.52%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.24%E -1.16%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-14 19:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.11%E -3.52%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.97%E -1.81%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-14 17:15
888sport🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.11%E -3.52%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.97%E -1.81%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-14 17:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.11%E -3.52%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.97%E -1.81%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-14 17:09
LiveScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.11%E -3.52%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.97%E -1.81%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-14 17:09
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.11%E -3.52%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.97%E -1.81%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-14 17:09
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.11%E -3.52%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.97%E -1.81%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-14 17:10
Bet Right🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.11%E -3.52%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.97%E -1.81%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-15 00:55
DraftKings🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.76%E -4.00%K -13.09%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -1.51%E -0.531%K -0.818%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-14 18:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.76%E -4.00%K -13.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.97%E -1.81%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-14 11:50
ReBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.76%E -4.00%K -13.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.97%E -1.81%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-14 11:50
TABtouch🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.76%E -4.00%K -13.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.97%E -1.81%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-14 17:10
BetRivers🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.76%E -4.00%K -13.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.97%E -1.81%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-14 17:10
Bally Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.76%E -4.00%K -13.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.97%E -1.81%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-14 17:09
ATG (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.76%E -4.00%K -13.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.97%E -1.81%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-14 17:09
betPARX🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.76%E -4.00%K -13.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.97%E -1.81%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-14 17:09
BetMGM🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -6.42%E -4.49%K -14.92%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV +0.214%E +0.074%K +0.113%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-14 23:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -6.42%E -4.49%K -14.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -4.97%E -1.81%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-15 00:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.71%EV -6.42%E -4.49%K -14.92%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.29%EV -5.32%E -1.94%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-15 00:46
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -7.07%E -4.98%K -16.83%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -1.51%E -0.531%K -0.818%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-14 23:39
Betclic (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.53%EV -7.72%E -5.48%K -18.84%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.47%EV -7.39%E -2.76%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-14 21:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 66.01%EV -9.03%E -6.50%K -23.16%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.99%EV -6.70%E -2.48%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-14 11:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 64.72%EV -9.03%E -6.50%K -23.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.28%EV -11.88%E -4.66%K -7.67%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-14 11:50
Grosvenor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 65.27%EV -12.96%E -9.74%K -39.27%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.73%EV -13.61%E -5.44%K -9.07%G +0.000%15.2%2026-09-14 17:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%1.1%2026-09-15 00:30
ProphetX◎1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33%4.9%2026-09-14 20:50
Matchbook◎1.39I 71.94%NM 64.99%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.01%10.7%2026-09-15 03:35
Novig◎1.00I 100.00%NM 72.22%2.60I 38.46%NM 27.78%38.5%2026-09-15 00:20