The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Renat Khavalov v Raufeon Stots

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 02:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Renat Khavalov (Local)

Prediction 72.86%1.37fair odd
EV -0.183%
Edge -0.134%
Kelly -0.495%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.92%72.86%72.86%74.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.351.361.3777.52%74.12%73.53%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Raufeon Stots (Visit)

Prediction 27.14%3.68fair odd
EV +4.49%
Edge +1.17%
Kelly +1.58%
Growth +0.071%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.10%27.14%27.14%32.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.092.903.8534.48%32.40%34.48%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Renat Khavalov (Local): 72.86%; Raufeon Stots (Visit): 27.14%. For Raufeon Stots (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.68. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.49%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.90%EV -6.01%E -4.66%K -20.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.10%EV +4.49%E +1.17%K +1.58%G +0.071%3.5%2026-04-12 01:55
FanDuel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -0.912%E -0.670%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -10.43%E -3.16%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-12 01:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.10%E -2.33%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -11.79%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 01:45
Neds🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.10%E -2.33%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -11.79%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 01:44
Unibet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.92%EV -0.183%E -0.134%K -0.495%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -21.29%E -7.34%K -11.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-12 01:45
LeoVegas🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -0.912%E -0.670%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -21.29%E -7.34%K -11.21%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 01:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -0.912%E -0.670%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -21.29%E -7.34%K -11.21%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 01:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -0.912%E -0.670%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -21.29%E -7.34%K -11.21%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 01:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -0.912%E -0.670%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -21.29%E -7.34%K -11.21%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 01:45
Grosvenor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -0.912%E -0.670%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -21.29%E -7.34%K -11.21%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 01:45
Bally Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -0.912%E -0.670%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -21.29%E -7.34%K -11.21%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 01:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.