The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Renan Ferreira v Sergey Bilostenniy

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 02:40 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Renan Ferreira (Local)

Prediction 37.36%2.68fair odd
EV +30.75%
Edge +8.78%
Kelly +12.30%
Growth +3.78%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.93%37.36%37.36%48.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.121.943.5051.55%47.23%51.55%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sergey Bilostenniy (Visit)

Prediction 62.64%1.60fair odd
EV +14.64%
Edge +8.00%
Kelly +17.64%
Growth +2.58%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.87%62.64%62.64%73.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.751.801.8377.52%57.23%55.56%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Renan Ferreira (Local): 37.36%; Sergey Bilostenniy (Visit): 62.64%. For Renan Ferreira (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.68. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +30.75%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV +30.75%E +8.78%K +12.30%G +3.78%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -19.19%E -14.88%K -66.17%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 02:35
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -21.55%E -10.26%K -19.59%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV +9.63%E +5.50%K +12.84%G +1.24%4.8%2026-05-03 02:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -21.55%E -10.26%K -19.59%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV +9.63%E +5.50%K +12.84%G +1.24%4.8%2026-05-03 02:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -25.29%E -12.64%K -25.29%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV +14.64%E +8.00%K +17.64%G +2.58%4.6%2026-05-03 02:23
Unibet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -27.16%E -13.93%K -28.59%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV +12.76%E +7.09%K +15.95%G +2.04%6.8%2026-05-03 02:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -27.53%E -14.19%K -29.29%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV +12.76%E +7.09%K +15.95%G +2.04%7.1%2026-05-03 02:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -27.53%E -14.19%K -29.29%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV +12.76%E +7.09%K +15.95%G +2.04%7.1%2026-05-03 02:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -27.53%E -14.19%K -29.29%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV +12.76%E +7.09%K +15.95%G +2.04%7.1%2026-05-03 02:20
Grosvenor🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -27.53%E -14.19%K -29.29%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV +12.76%E +7.09%K +15.95%G +2.04%7.1%2026-05-03 02:20
LeoVegas🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -27.53%E -14.19%K -29.29%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV +12.76%E +7.09%K +15.95%G +2.04%7.1%2026-05-03 02:20
Bally Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -27.53%E -14.19%K -29.29%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV +12.76%E +7.09%K +15.95%G +2.04%7.1%2026-05-03 02:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.