Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rei Tsuruya v Luis Gurule

Kickoff: 2026-05-30 09:25 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

76%

24%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rei Tsuruya (Local)

Prediction 76.07%1.31fair odd

EV +0.406%

Edge +0.307%

Kelly +1.27%

Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 1.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

72.61%75.93%76.62%79.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.221.261.251.3281.97%79.51%80.00%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Luis Gurule (Visit)

Prediction 23.93%4.18fair odd

EV +10.10%

Edge +2.20%

Kelly +2.81%

Growth +0.283%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

20.96%24.07%23.38%27.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.453.984.034.6028.99%25.14%24.81%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rei Tsuruya (Local): 76.07%; Luis Gurule (Visit): 23.93%. For Luis Gurule (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.18. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.10%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 79.04%EV -7.20%E -5.90%K -32.73%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96%EV +10.10%E +2.20%K +2.81%G +0.283%	3.7%	2026-05-30 09:10
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -7.20%E -5.90%K -32.73%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV +5.31%E +1.21%K +1.56%G +0.083%	4.7%	2026-05-30 09:09
TABtouch🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -6.44%E -5.24%K -28.00%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV +2.92%E +0.679%K +0.885%G +0.026%	4.6%	2026-05-30 09:10
Grosvenor🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -6.44%E -5.24%K -28.00%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV +2.92%E +0.679%K +0.885%G +0.026%	4.6%	2026-05-30 09:10
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -6.44%E -5.24%K -28.00%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV +2.92%E +0.679%K +0.885%G +0.026%	4.6%	2026-05-30 09:10
LeoVegas🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -6.44%E -5.24%K -28.00%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV +2.92%E +0.679%K +0.885%G +0.026%	4.6%	2026-05-30 09:10
Virgin Bet🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -6.44%E -5.24%K -28.00%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV +2.92%E +0.679%K +0.885%G +0.026%	4.6%	2026-05-30 09:10
Unibet🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -6.44%E -5.24%K -28.00%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV +2.92%E +0.679%K +0.885%G +0.026%	4.6%	2026-05-30 09:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -5.68%E -4.58%K -23.66%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV +1.72%E +0.406%K +0.530%G +0.009%	4.2%	2026-05-30 09:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -6.44%E -5.24%K -28.00%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV +1.72%E +0.406%K +0.530%G +0.009%	4.8%	2026-05-30 09:00
Caesars🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -5.68%E -4.58%K -23.66%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV +0.527%E +0.125%K +0.165%G +0.001%	4.5%	2026-05-30 08:47
DraftKings🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -5.68%E -4.58%K -23.66%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV +0.527%E +0.125%K +0.165%G +0.001%	4.5%	2026-05-30 08:50
BetUS🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -5.68%E -4.58%K -23.66%G +0.000%	4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV -0.670%E -0.161%K -0.213%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-05-30 09:10
Betr (AU)🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -7.20%E -5.90%K -32.73%G +0.000%	4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -0.670%E -0.161%K -0.213%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-30 09:00
Pinnacle🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 76.03%EV -2.64%E -2.06%K -9.42%G +0.000%	4.06I 24.63%NM 23.97%EV -2.82%E -0.696%K -0.923%G +0.000%	2.8%	2026-05-30 06:50
Bet Right🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.92%E -3.93%K -19.67%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.26%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-30 07:10
Bovada🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 75.67%EV -3.40%E -2.68%K -12.58%G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV -5.46%E -1.38%K -1.85%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-05-30 08:19
PlayUp🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -4.92%E -3.93%K -19.67%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -7.85%E -2.04%K -2.75%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-30 04:30
SportsBet🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 75.05%EV -3.40%E -2.68%K -12.58%G +0.000%	3.82I 26.18%NM 24.95%EV -8.57%E -2.24%K -3.04%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-05-30 01:30
FanDuel🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -1.88%E -1.45%K -6.47%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -9.05%E -2.38%K -3.23%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-05-30 01:30
Neds🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -2.64%E -2.06%K -9.42%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -10.24%E -2.73%K -3.73%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-05-29 19:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -2.64%E -2.06%K -9.42%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -10.24%E -2.73%K -3.73%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-05-29 19:49
Betsson🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -1.12%E -0.858%K -3.72%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -12.64%E -3.46%K -4.77%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-05-29 15:09
NordicBet🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -1.12%E -0.858%K -3.72%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -12.64%E -3.46%K -4.77%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-05-29 15:09
Fliff🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -4.16%E -3.30%K -15.99%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -13.83%E -3.84%K -5.32%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-05-30 09:10
Coolbet🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV +0.406%E +0.307%K +1.27%G +0.005%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -16.23%E -4.64%K -6.49%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-05-29 18:10
Betway🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -1.12%E -0.858%K -3.72%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -16.23%E -4.64%K -6.49%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-05-29 16:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -1.88%E -1.45%K -6.47%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -16.23%E -4.64%K -6.49%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-30 01:30
Paddy Power🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -1.88%E -1.45%K -6.47%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -16.23%E -4.64%K -6.49%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-30 01:30
BetAnything🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 73.09%EV -3.40%E -2.68%K -12.58%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 26.91%EV -17.42%E -5.05%K -7.11%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-05-30 03:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
BetOpenly◎	1.25I 80.00%NM 79.84%	4.95I 20.20%NM 20.16%	0.2%	2026-05-30 08:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92%	4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%	0.8%	2026-05-30 09:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92%	4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%	0.8%	2026-05-30 09:10
Matchbook◎	1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92%	4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%	0.8%	2026-05-30 09:10
Kalshi◎	1.28I 78.13%NM 77.26%	4.35I 22.99%NM 22.74%	1.1%	2026-05-30 09:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.28I 78.13%NM 77.06%	4.30I 23.26%NM 22.94%	1.4%	2026-05-30 09:00
ProphetX◎	1.27I 78.74%NM 76.78%	4.20I 23.81%NM 23.22%	2.5%	2026-05-30 09:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 72.56%	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%	50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84%	8.5%	2026-05-30 09:10