Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rei Tsuruya v Jesus Santos Aguilar

Kickoff: 2026-05-29 23:25 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

72%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rei Tsuruya (Local)

Prediction 71.58%1.40fair odd

EV +0.211%

Edge +0.151%

Kelly +0.529%

Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

50.00%71.45%71.56%73.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.001.341.351.40100.00%74.67%74.07%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jesus Santos Aguilar (Visit)

Prediction 28.42%3.52fair odd

EV +2.31%

Edge +0.643%

Kelly +0.890%

Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

26.53%28.55%28.44%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.003.153.203.60100.00%31.77%31.25%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rei Tsuruya (Local): 71.58%; Jesus Santos Aguilar (Visit): 28.42%. For Jesus Santos Aguilar (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.52. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.31%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Neds🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -6.95%E -5.34%K -23.15%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV +2.31%E +0.643%K +0.890%G +0.021%	4.7%	2026-05-17 02:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -6.95%E -5.34%K -23.15%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV +2.31%E +0.643%K +0.890%G +0.021%	4.7%	2026-05-17 02:45
Caesars🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -6.95%E -5.34%K -23.15%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV +2.31%E +0.643%K +0.890%G +0.021%	4.7%	2026-05-19 23:56
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -4.80%E -3.61%K -14.54%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -0.529%E -0.151%K -0.211%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-05-21 21:30
Betway🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.95%E -5.34%K -23.15%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -0.529%E -0.151%K -0.211%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-05-21 08:59
Betsson🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -7.66%E -5.94%K -26.42%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -0.529%E -0.151%K -0.211%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-17 14:15
NordicBet🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -7.66%E -5.94%K -26.42%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -0.529%E -0.151%K -0.211%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-17 14:15
BetUS🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 72.23%EV -4.80%E -3.61%K -14.54%G +0.000%	3.46I 28.90%NM 27.77%EV -1.67%E -0.481%K -0.677%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-05-21 21:30
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -8.38%E -6.55%K -29.92%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -1.95%E -0.565%K -0.796%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-05-18 22:55
Bovada🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.08%E -3.05%K -12.01%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -3.37%E -0.991%K -1.40%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-05-23 16:38
BetAnything🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.64%EV -4.80%E -3.61%K -14.54%G +0.000%	3.36I 29.76%NM 28.36%EV -4.51%E -1.34%K -1.91%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-05-21 21:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.37%E -2.49%K -9.62%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -7.63%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-05-22 09:10
DraftKings🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -1.94%E -1.41%K -5.23%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -9.05%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-05-22 07:09
Betr (AU)🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.08%E -3.05%K -12.01%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -9.05%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-05-23 16:59
FanDuel🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.08%E -3.05%K -12.01%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -9.05%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-05-24 08:30
Bet Right🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -3.37%E -2.49%K -9.62%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -10.48%E -3.33%K -4.87%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-05-24 02:09
Pinnacle🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 69.25%EV -0.504%E -0.363%K -1.29%G +0.000%	3.13I 31.95%NM 30.75%EV -11.04%E -3.53%K -5.19%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-05-21 21:40
Coolbet🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 69.25%EV -0.504%E -0.363%K -1.29%G +0.000%	3.13I 31.95%NM 30.75%EV -11.04%E -3.53%K -5.19%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-05-21 21:49
Paddy Power🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -2.65%E -1.95%K -7.37%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -14.74%E -4.91%K -7.37%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-05-24 08:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -2.65%E -1.95%K -7.37%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -14.74%E -4.91%K -7.37%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-05-24 08:20
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV +0.211%E +0.151%K +0.529%G +0.001%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -16.16%E -5.48%K -8.29%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-25 13:30
LeoVegas🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV +0.211%E +0.151%K +0.529%G +0.001%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -16.16%E -5.48%K -8.29%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-25 13:30
Unibet🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV +0.211%E +0.151%K +0.529%G +0.001%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -16.16%E -5.48%K -8.29%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-25 13:29
Grosvenor🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV +0.211%E +0.151%K +0.529%G +0.001%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -16.16%E -5.48%K -8.29%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-25 13:30
Virgin Bet🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV +0.211%E +0.151%K +0.529%G +0.001%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -16.16%E -5.48%K -8.29%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-25 13:29
TABtouch🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV +0.211%E +0.151%K +0.529%G +0.001%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -16.16%E -5.48%K -8.29%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-25 13:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV +0.211%E +0.151%K +0.529%G +0.001%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -16.16%E -5.48%K -8.29%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-25 13:30
PlayUp🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV +0.211%E +0.151%K +0.529%G +0.001%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -17.58%E -6.06%K -9.25%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-05-24 08:30
SportsBet🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 50.00%EV -28.42%E -28.42%K +0.000%G +0.000%	1.00I 100.00%NM 50.00%EV -71.58%E -71.58%K +0.000%G +0.000%	100.0%	2026-05-25 13:49

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
ProphetX◎	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%	3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%	5.3%	2026-05-21 21:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.03I 97.09%NM 74.44%	3.00I 33.33%NM 25.56%	30.4%	2026-05-24 16:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.03I 97.09%NM 74.44%	3.00I 33.33%NM 25.56%	30.4%	2026-05-24 16:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.03I 97.09%NM 74.44%	3.00I 33.33%NM 25.56%	30.4%	2026-05-24 16:00
Novig◎	1.42I 70.42%NM 41.32%	1.00I 100.00%NM 58.68%	70.4%	2026-05-25 06:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 67.41%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.79%	33.00I 3.03%NM 2.80%	8.3%	2026-05-23 17:10