The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Regina Tarin v Ernesta Kareckaite

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 23:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Regina Tarin (Local)

Prediction 85.79%1.17fair odd
EV +99.04%
Edge +42.69%
Kelly +75.03%
Growth +74.31%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.85%79.89%89.71%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.131.022.3299.01%88.21%98.04%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ernesta Kareckaite (Visit)

Prediction 14.21%7.04fair odd
EV +141.53%
Edge +8.33%
Kelly +8.85%
Growth +12.52%

assuming max odds 17.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.66%20.11%10.29%58.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.6710.9412.0017.0059.88%9.14%8.33%5.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Regina Tarin (Local): 85.79%; Ernesta Kareckaite (Visit): 14.21%. For Ernesta Kareckaite (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.04. 19 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 17.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +141.53%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.85%EV +99.04%E +42.69%K +75.03%G +74.31%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.15%EV -76.27%E -45.67%K -113.84%G +0.000%3.0%2026-02-28 23:06
Bovada🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV +54.43%E +30.24%K +68.03%G +37.03%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -72.30%E -37.07%K -76.10%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-28 23:00
Caesars🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV +14.10%E +10.60%K +42.74%G +6.03%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -53.83%E -16.56%K -23.92%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-28 23:06
FanDuel🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.87%EV -9.06%E -8.55%K -151.00%G +0.000%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.13%EV +33.55%E +3.57%K +3.99%G +1.34%5.0%2026-02-28 23:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -9.06%E -8.55%K -151.00%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +20.76%E +2.44%K +2.77%G +0.575%6.1%2026-02-28 23:09
Betway🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -9.92%E -9.45%K -198.36%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV +27.87%E +3.10%K +3.48%G +0.971%6.3%2026-02-28 23:09
LeoVegas🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -10.78%E -10.36%K -269.40%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV +20.76%E +2.44%K +2.77%G +0.575%7.9%2026-02-28 23:08
Unibet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -11.63%E -11.29%K -387.79%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV +77.59%E +6.21%K +6.75%G +5.24%5.1%2026-02-28 23:09
Fliff🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 90.53%EV -11.63%E -11.29%K -387.79%G +0.000%9.85I 10.15%NM 9.47%EV +39.94%E +4.06%K +4.51%G +1.80%7.2%2026-02-28 23:09
DraftKings🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -12.49%E -12.25%K -624.58%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +141.53%E +8.33%K +8.85%G +12.52%3.9%2026-02-28 23:09
betPARX🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -12.49%E -12.25%K -624.58%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +113.11%E +7.54%K +8.08%G +9.14%4.7%2026-02-28 23:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -12.49%E -12.25%K -624.58%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +113.11%E +7.54%K +8.08%G +9.14%4.7%2026-02-28 23:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -12.49%E -12.25%K -624.58%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +113.11%E +7.54%K +8.08%G +9.14%4.7%2026-02-28 23:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -12.49%E -12.25%K -624.58%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV +98.91%E +7.06%K +7.61%G +7.52%5.2%2026-02-28 23:09
ATG (SE)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -12.49%E -12.25%K -624.58%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV +98.91%E +7.06%K +7.61%G +7.52%5.2%2026-02-28 23:09
Grosvenor🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -12.49%E -12.25%K -624.58%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV +77.59%E +6.21%K +6.75%G +5.24%6.0%2026-02-28 23:10
TABtouch🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -12.49%E -12.25%K -624.58%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV +77.59%E +6.21%K +6.75%G +5.24%6.0%2026-02-28 23:09
Paddy Power🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -12.49%E -12.25%K -624.58%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV +70.49%E +5.87%K +6.41%G +4.52%6.4%2026-02-28 23:10
BetMGM🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -13.35%E -13.22%K -1334.96%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV +84.70%E +6.52%K +7.06%G +5.98%6.7%2026-02-28 23:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%EV -13.35%E -13.22%K -1334.96%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV +70.49%E +5.87%K +6.41%G +4.52%7.3%2026-02-28 23:09
Virgin Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%EV -13.35%E -13.22%K -1334.96%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV +70.49%E +5.87%K +6.41%G +4.52%7.3%2026-02-28 23:09
Bally Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%EV -13.35%E -13.22%K -1334.96%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV +70.49%E +5.87%K +6.41%G +4.52%7.3%2026-02-28 23:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.07I 93.46%NM 92.66%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.34%0.9%2026-02-28 23:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 85.64%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.36%2.4%2026-02-28 23:09
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%6.8%2026-02-28 23:10
Novig◎1.00I 100.00%NM 90.01%9.01I 11.10%NM 9.99%11.1%2026-02-28 23:09