The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Raufeon Stots v Lazaro Dayron

Kickoff: 2026-07-31 22:41 UTC

Final: Raufeon Stots 0–1 Lazaro Dayron

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Raufeon Stots (Local)

Prediction 41.61%2.40fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -0.939%
Kelly -1.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.05%41.61%41.61%41.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.312.322.322.3543.29%43.04%43.10%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lazaro Dayron (Visit)

Prediction 58.39%1.71fair odd
EV -3.08%
Edge -1.85%
Kelly -4.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.19%58.39%58.39%59.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.591.561.6664.52%62.96%63.90%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Raufeon Stots (Local): 41.61%; Lazaro Dayron (Visit): 58.39%. For Raufeon Stots (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.40. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.35, with an expected value of -2.21%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -2.21%E -0.939%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -7.75%E -4.91%K -13.36%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-31 17:10
FanDuel🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -3.46%E -1.49%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -4.25%E -2.59%K -6.64%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-31 22:05
Unibet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -3.46%E -1.49%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.95%EV -9.50%E -6.13%K -17.28%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-31 20:04
Grosvenor🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -3.46%E -1.49%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.95%EV -9.50%E -6.13%K -17.28%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-31 20:05
Bally Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -3.46%E -1.49%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.95%EV -9.50%E -6.13%K -17.28%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-31 20:04
BetOnline.ag🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.81%EV -3.87%E -1.68%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.19%EV -3.08%E -1.85%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-31 22:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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