The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Rasul Magomedov v Rafael Alves

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 01:40 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rasul Magomedov (Local)

Prediction 81.87%1.22fair odd
EV -3.39%
Edge -2.87%
Kelly -18.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.91%81.87%81.87%83.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.151.151.1887.72%86.58%86.96%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rafael Alves (Visit)

Prediction 18.13%5.52fair odd
EV +4.23%
Edge +0.736%
Kelly +0.890%
Growth +0.038%

assuming max odds 5.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.55%18.13%18.13%19.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.535.675.7520.00%18.10%17.62%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rasul Magomedov (Local): 81.87%; Rafael Alves (Visit): 18.13%. For Rafael Alves (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.52. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.23%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -6.66%E -5.85%K -47.60%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV +4.23%E +0.736%K +0.890%G +0.038%5.1%2026-05-01 17:04
Neds🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -6.66%E -5.85%K -47.60%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV +4.23%E +0.736%K +0.890%G +0.038%5.1%2026-05-01 17:04
FanDuel🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -5.03%E -4.33%K -31.42%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV +1.51%E +0.270%K +0.328%G +0.005%4.1%2026-05-02 02:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -3.39%E -2.87%K -18.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -9.37%E -1.87%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-03 00:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.