The School of Odds
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Randy Brown v Jacobe Smith

Kickoff: 2026-11-01 01:54 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Randy Brown (Local)

Prediction 29.03%3.44fair odd
EV +1.61%
Edge +0.460%
Kelly +0.644%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.54%29.15%29.03%31.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.213.203.5036.36%31.16%31.25%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jacobe Smith (Visit)

Prediction 70.97%1.41fair odd
EV -2.06%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -5.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.41%70.85%70.97%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.351.341.3878.74%74.33%74.63%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Randy Brown (Local): 29.03%; Jacobe Smith (Visit): 70.97%. For Randy Brown (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.44. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.61%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV +1.61%E +0.460%K +0.644%G +0.010%1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -5.61%E -4.22%K -17.00%G +0.000%3.8%2026-11-01 01:40
BetOnline.ag🎯3.47I 28.82%NM 27.71%EV +0.738%E +0.213%K +0.299%G +0.002%1.33I 75.19%NM 72.29%EV -5.61%E -4.22%K -17.00%G +0.000%4.0%2026-11-01 01:37
BetUS🎯3.46I 28.90%NM 27.77%EV +0.448%E +0.129%K +0.182%G +0.001%1.33I 75.19%NM 72.23%EV -5.61%E -4.22%K -17.00%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-01 01:40
NordicBet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV +0.157%E +0.046%K +0.064%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -5.61%E -4.22%K -17.00%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-31 22:50
ReBet🎯3.44I 29.07%NM 27.88%EV -0.133%E -0.039%K -0.055%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 72.12%EV -5.61%E -4.22%K -17.00%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-31 20:50
BetMGM🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -1.29%E -0.381%K -0.539%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.61%E -4.22%K -17.00%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-31 23:20
Unibet (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -1.29%E -0.381%K -0.539%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.61%E -4.22%K -17.00%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-31 20:50
Pinnacle🎯3.37I 29.67%NM 28.75%EV -2.17%E -0.643%K -0.914%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 71.25%EV -3.48%E -2.56%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.2%2026-11-01 00:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -2.75%E -0.820%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.61%E -4.22%K -17.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-31 23:25
Betsson🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -2.75%E -0.820%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -7.03%E -5.37%K -22.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-31 22:50
FanDuel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -4.20%E -1.27%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -3.48%E -2.56%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.8%2026-11-01 00:30
DraftKings🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -4.20%E -1.27%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -4.19%E -3.11%K -11.98%G +0.000%4.4%2026-11-01 00:55
SportsBet🎯3.29I 30.40%NM 28.94%EV -4.49%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.06%EV -4.90%E -3.66%K -14.42%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-01 00:30
Betclic (FR)🎯3.27I 30.58%NM 28.29%EV -5.07%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.71%EV -8.45%E -6.55%K -29.14%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-31 22:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -5.65%E -1.74%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.19%E -3.11%K -11.98%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-31 20:50
BetAnything🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -5.65%E -1.74%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -4.90%E -3.66%K -14.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-01 01:40
Caesars🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -7.10%E -2.22%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -2.77%E -2.02%K -7.49%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-01 01:21
Betr (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -7.10%E -2.22%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.90%E -3.66%K -14.42%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-31 20:55
Fliff🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -7.10%E -2.22%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.90%E -3.66%K -14.42%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-01 00:55
Sky Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -7.10%E -2.22%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.74%E -5.95%K -25.80%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-31 22:30
Paddy Power🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -7.10%E -2.22%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.74%E -5.95%K -25.80%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-31 22:00
Winamax (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -7.10%E -2.22%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.74%E -5.95%K -25.80%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-31 20:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -7.10%E -2.22%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.74%E -5.95%K -25.80%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-31 23:20
Coolbet🎯3.17I 31.55%NM 30.33%EV -7.97%E -2.51%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.67%EV -2.06%E -1.49%K -5.43%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-27 19:54
Bet Right🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -8.55%E -2.71%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.48%E -2.56%K -9.67%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-01 01:35
888sport🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -8.55%E -2.71%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -5.61%E -4.22%K -17.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-29 03:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -10.00%E -3.23%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -2.06%E -1.49%K -5.43%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-31 15:05
Betway🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -10.00%E -3.23%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.48%E -2.56%K -9.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-27 13:20
BetRivers🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -11.46%E -3.76%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.06%E -1.49%K -5.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-31 15:05
LiveScore Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -11.46%E -3.76%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.06%E -1.49%K -5.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-31 15:05
TABtouch🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -11.46%E -3.76%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.06%E -1.49%K -5.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-31 15:05
Virgin Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -11.46%E -3.76%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.06%E -1.49%K -5.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-31 15:05
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -11.46%E -3.76%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.06%E -1.49%K -5.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-31 15:05
Bally Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -11.46%E -3.76%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.06%E -1.49%K -5.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-31 15:05
ATG (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -11.46%E -3.76%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.06%E -1.49%K -5.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-31 15:05
betPARX🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -11.46%E -3.76%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.06%E -1.49%K -5.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-31 15:05
Svenska Spel🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -11.46%E -3.76%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.06%E -1.49%K -5.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-31 15:05
PMU (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -11.46%E -3.76%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.06%E -1.49%K -5.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-31 15:05
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.59%EV -20.16%E -7.33%K -11.52%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 68.41%EV -9.87%E -7.77%K -36.55%G +0.000%15.1%2026-10-31 15:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎3.58I 27.93%NM 27.97%1.39I 71.94%NM 72.03%-0.1%2026-11-01 00:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87%1.40I 71.43%NM 71.13%0.4%2026-11-01 01:40
Novig◎3.57I 28.01%NM 27.88%1.38I 72.46%NM 72.12%0.5%2026-11-01 01:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57%0.5%2026-11-01 01:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57%0.5%2026-11-01 01:40
Polymarket◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28%0.9%2026-10-31 21:05
Kalshi◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28%0.9%2026-11-01 01:25
ProphetX◎3.40I 29.41%NM 28.42%1.35I 74.07%NM 71.58%3.5%2026-11-01 01:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯3.17I 31.55%NM 29.61%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.51%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.88%6.5%2026-10-31 23:50

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