Language:English
Rafael Tobias v Lucas Fernando
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Rafael Tobias (Local)
Prediction 28.38%3.52fair odd
EV -0.946%
Edge -0.271%
Kelly -0.380%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.49
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.89%28.49%28.27%29.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.323.303.4932.79%30.14%30.30%28.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lucas Fernando (Visit)
Prediction 71.62%1.40fair odd
EV -2.60%
Edge -1.91%
Kelly -7.22%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.48%71.51%71.73%72.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.331.331.3678.74%75.07%75.19%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rafael Tobias (Local): 28.38%; Lucas Fernando (Visit): 71.62%. For Rafael Tobias (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.52. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.49, with an expected value of -0.946%; they did not produce positive expected value.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.89%EV -0.946%E -0.271%K -0.380%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.11%EV -3.32%E -2.46%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-08-15 22:34 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.42I 29.24%NM 28.15%EV -2.93%E -0.857%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.85%EV -4.03%E -3.01%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-15 22:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.41I 29.33%NM 27.91%EV -3.22%E -0.943%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.09%EV -5.46%E -4.14%K -17.08%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-15 22:24 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -3.50%E -1.03%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.03%E -3.01%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-15 22:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -3.50%E -1.03%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.03%E -3.01%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-14 22:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -3.50%E -1.03%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.75%E -3.57%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-15 20:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -3.50%E -1.03%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.75%E -3.57%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-15 20:49 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -3.50%E -1.03%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.75%E -3.57%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-09 17:26 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -3.50%E -1.03%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.75%E -3.57%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-11 12:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -3.50%E -1.03%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.46%E -4.14%K -17.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 22:38 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.45%EV -4.35%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.55%EV -4.03%E -3.01%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-15 22:34 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV -4.92%E -1.47%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.28%EV -3.32%E -2.46%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-15 22:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.92%E -1.47%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.75%E -3.57%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-11 12:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -6.34%E -1.92%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -2.60%E -1.91%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-15 22:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -6.34%E -1.92%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.75%E -3.57%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-15 20:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -6.34%E -1.92%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.75%E -3.57%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-15 21:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -6.34%E -1.92%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.75%E -3.57%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-15 21:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -6.34%E -1.92%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.75%E -3.57%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-15 21:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -6.34%E -1.92%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.75%E -3.57%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-15 21:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -6.34%E -1.92%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.75%E -3.57%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-15 20:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -6.34%E -1.92%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.75%E -3.57%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-15 21:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -6.34%E -1.92%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.75%E -3.57%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-15 20:59 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -6.34%E -1.92%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.75%E -3.57%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-15 21:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -6.34%E -1.92%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.46%E -4.14%K -17.08%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 20:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -6.34%E -1.92%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.46%E -4.14%K -17.08%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 22:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -7.76%E -2.39%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.32%E -2.46%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-15 22:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -7.76%E -2.39%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.32%E -2.46%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-12 15:24 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.76%E -2.39%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.75%E -3.57%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-10 12:48 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.76%E -2.39%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.75%E -3.57%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-10 12:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.76%E -2.39%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.75%E -3.57%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-15 16:08 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -9.18%E -2.87%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.03%E -3.01%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-15 21:09 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -9.18%E -2.87%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.03%E -3.01%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-15 22:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.40%EV -13.43%E -4.40%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 70.60%EV -9.05%E -7.12%K -33.50%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-15 20:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 3.58I 27.93%NM 27.97% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 72.03% | -0.1% | 2026-08-15 22:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18% | 0.6% | 2026-08-15 22:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57% | 0.8% | 2026-08-15 22:34 |
| Novig◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 1.1% | 2026-08-15 22:34 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 1.1% | 2026-08-15 22:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.32% | 1.2% | 2026-08-15 22:38 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.59% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.41% | 1.7% | 2026-08-15 22:34 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.15% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.85% | 3.4% | 2026-08-15 22:34 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.27% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.89% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.5% | 2026-08-12 08:04 |