Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rafael Tobias v Lucas Fernando

2026-08-16 02:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

35%

65%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rafael Tobias (Local)

Prediction 35.11%2.85fair odd

EV -0.648%

Edge -0.229%

Kelly -0.354%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

34.03%34.98%34.98%35.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.702.732.702.8337.04%36.59%37.04%35.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lucas Fernando (Visit)

Prediction 64.89%1.54fair odd

EV -3.31%

Edge -2.22%

Kelly -6.75%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

64.44%65.02%65.02%65.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.441.471.481.4969.44%68.10%67.80%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Rafael Tobias (Local): 35.11%; Lucas Fernando (Visit): 64.89%. For Rafael Tobias (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.85. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.83, with an expected value of -0.648%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle	2.83I 35.34%NM 34.03%EV -0.648%E -0.229%K -0.354%G +0.000%	1.46I 68.49%NM 65.97%EV -5.26%E -3.60%K -11.43%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-08-04 14:50
BetOnline.ag	2.77I 36.10%NM 34.98%EV -2.75%E -0.994%K -1.56%G +0.000%	1.49I 67.11%NM 65.02%EV -3.31%E -2.22%K -6.75%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-08-04 22:10
DraftKings	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -5.21%E -1.93%K -3.07%G +0.000%	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -3.31%E -2.22%K -6.75%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-08-04 21:19
Caesars	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -5.21%E -1.93%K -3.07%G +0.000%	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -3.31%E -2.22%K -6.75%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-08-04 22:25
NordicBet	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -5.21%E -1.93%K -3.07%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -6.55%E -4.55%K -14.89%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-08-04 20:29
Betsson	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -5.21%E -1.93%K -3.07%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -6.55%E -4.55%K -14.89%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-08-04 20:29

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet	2.83I 35.34%NM 33.07%	1.46I 68.49%NM 64.10%	33.00I 3.03%NM 2.84%	6.9%	2026-08-04 14:50