Language:English
Rafael Tobias v Diyar Nurgozhay
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Rafael Tobias (Local)
Prediction 60.36%1.66fair odd
EV -1.62%
Edge -0.994%
Kelly -2.57%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.63
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.19%60.61%60.55%63.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.551.531.6366.23%64.34%65.36%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Diyar Nurgozhay (Visit)
Prediction 39.64%2.52fair odd
EV +3.08%
Edge +1.18%
Kelly +1.92%
Growth +0.059%
assuming max odds 2.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.74%39.39%39.45%40.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.462.502.6042.55%40.66%40.00%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rafael Tobias (Local): 60.36%; Diyar Nurgozhay (Visit): 39.64%. For Diyar Nurgozhay (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.52. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.08%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -8.86%E -5.87%K -17.38%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV +3.08%E +1.18%K +1.92%G +0.059% | 4.7% | 2026-03-07 21:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -8.86%E -5.87%K -17.38%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV +3.08%E +1.18%K +1.92%G +0.059% | 4.7% | 2026-03-07 21:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -8.26%E -5.43%K -15.88%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV +1.09%E +0.429%K +0.706%G +0.008% | 5.0% | 2026-03-07 22:59 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -5.85%E -3.75%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -0.888%E -0.355%K -0.592%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-07 23:04 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.66%E -5.00%K -14.45%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.888%E -0.355%K -0.592%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 19:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.66%E -5.00%K -14.45%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.888%E -0.355%K -0.592%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 19:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.66%E -5.00%K -14.45%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.888%E -0.355%K -0.592%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 19:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.66%E -5.00%K -14.45%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.888%E -0.355%K -0.592%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 19:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.66%E -5.00%K -14.45%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.888%E -0.355%K -0.592%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 19:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.66%E -5.00%K -14.45%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.888%E -0.355%K -0.592%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 19:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.66%E -5.00%K -14.45%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.888%E -0.355%K -0.592%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 19:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.66%E -5.00%K -14.45%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.888%E -0.355%K -0.592%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 19:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.66%E -5.00%K -14.45%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.888%E -0.355%K -0.592%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 19:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.66%E -5.00%K -14.45%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.888%E -0.355%K -0.592%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 19:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.66%E -5.00%K -14.45%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.888%E -0.355%K -0.592%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 19:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.66%E -5.00%K -14.45%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.888%E -0.355%K -0.592%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 19:04 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.66%E -5.00%K -14.45%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.888%E -0.355%K -0.592%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 19:03 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.66%E -5.00%K -14.45%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.888%E -0.355%K -0.592%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 14:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.66%E -5.00%K -14.45%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.888%E -0.355%K -0.592%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 20:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.04%EV -5.24%E -3.34%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.96%EV -2.47%E -1.01%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-07 20:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%EV -6.45%E -4.16%K -11.73%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.65%EV -2.47%E -1.01%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-07 20:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -4.04%E -2.54%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -2.87%E -1.17%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-07 23:04 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.24%E -3.34%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.87%E -1.17%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-07 19:38 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -7.05%E -4.58%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -2.87%E -1.17%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-07 17:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%EV -1.62%E -0.994%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%EV -4.85%E -2.02%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-07 22:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.24%E -3.34%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.85%E -2.02%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 22:29 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -7.05%E -4.58%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -4.85%E -2.02%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-07 23:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.24%E -3.34%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.65%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-07 17:49 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.24%E -3.34%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.65%E -2.37%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-07 17:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -2.22%E -1.37%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -6.44%E -2.73%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-07 22:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -2.22%E -1.37%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -6.83%E -2.91%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-07 23:03 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -2.83%E -1.76%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -6.83%E -2.91%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-07 22:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.43%E -2.14%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.83%E -2.91%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-07 23:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.43%E -2.14%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.83%E -2.91%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-07 22:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.43%E -2.14%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.83%E -2.91%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-07 22:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.62% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.38% | -0.0% | 2026-03-07 23:04 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.43% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.57% | 0.3% | 2026-03-07 23:04 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42% | 0.7% | 2026-03-07 23:04 |
| Novig◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.48% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 39.52% | 0.8% | 2026-03-07 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61% | 1.0% | 2026-03-07 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61% | 1.0% | 2026-03-07 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61% | 1.0% | 2026-03-07 23:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61% | 1.2% | 2026-03-07 23:00 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.23% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.92% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.5% | 2026-03-07 20:44 |