Language:English
Rafael dos Anjos v Alex Hernandez
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Rafael dos Anjos (Local)
Prediction 30.26%3.30fair odd
EV -1.66%
Edge -0.510%
Kelly -0.737%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.67%30.41%30.16%32.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.083.053.2537.04%32.49%32.79%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alex Hernandez (Visit)
Prediction 69.74%1.43fair odd
EV -2.36%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -5.91%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.84%69.59%69.84%70.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.361.371.4078.13%73.27%72.99%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rafael dos Anjos (Local): 30.26%; Alex Hernandez (Visit): 69.74%. For Rafael dos Anjos (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.30. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.25, with an expected value of -1.66%; they did not produce positive expected value.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.96%EV -1.66%E -0.510%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.04%EV -3.06%E -2.20%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-10-03 20:35 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.85%EV -2.57%E -0.797%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.15%EV -4.45%E -3.25%K -12.04%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-03 08:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.13%EV -3.17%E -0.991%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.87%EV -3.76%E -2.72%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-03 19:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -3.17%E -0.991%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -4.45%E -3.25%K -12.04%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-03 15:05 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -3.17%E -0.991%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -4.45%E -3.25%K -12.04%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-01 15:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -3.17%E -0.991%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -4.45%E -3.25%K -12.04%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-03 20:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.17%E -0.991%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.15%E -3.79%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 13:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.17%E -0.991%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.85%E -4.33%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 20:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -4.68%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -3.76%E -2.72%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-03 20:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -4.68%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -3.76%E -2.72%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-03 18:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.68%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.15%E -3.79%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 20:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.68%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.15%E -3.79%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 13:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -4.68%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.85%E -4.33%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-03 15:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -6.20%E -2.00%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.45%E -3.25%K -12.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-02 14:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.20%E -2.00%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.15%E -3.79%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-03 15:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -7.71%E -2.53%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -2.36%E -1.69%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-27 13:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -7.71%E -2.53%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -3.76%E -2.72%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 10:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -7.71%E -2.53%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -5.15%E -3.79%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-03 12:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -7.71%E -2.53%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -5.15%E -3.79%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-03 03:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.04I 32.89%NM 30.43%EV -8.01%E -2.64%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.57%EV -7.24%E -5.45%K -21.95%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-03 07:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -9.22%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.76%E -2.72%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-30 13:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -9.22%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.76%E -2.72%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-30 13:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -9.22%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.76%E -2.72%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-30 13:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -9.22%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.76%E -2.72%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-30 13:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -9.22%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.76%E -2.72%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-30 13:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -9.22%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.76%E -2.72%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-30 13:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -9.22%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.76%E -2.72%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-30 13:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -9.22%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.76%E -2.72%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-30 13:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -9.22%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.76%E -2.72%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-30 13:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -9.22%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.24%E -5.45%K -21.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-02 16:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -9.22%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.24%E -5.45%K -21.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-02 16:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -9.22%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.24%E -5.45%K -21.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-02 16:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.16%EV -18.30%E -6.78%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 67.84%EV -10.73%E -8.38%K -38.33%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-09-30 13:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 3.42I 29.24%NM 29.19% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.81% | 0.2% | 2026-10-03 20:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.38% | 0.8% | 2026-10-03 20:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.53% | 1.3% | 2026-10-03 20:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.53% | 1.3% | 2026-10-03 20:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.32% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.68% | 1.8% | 2026-10-03 20:50 |
| Novig◎ | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.45% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.55% | 2.0% | 2026-10-03 20:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.81% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.19% | 3.2% | 2026-10-03 20:15 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.49% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.67% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.7% | 2026-10-03 07:19 |