Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rafael dos Anjos v Alex Hernandez

2026-10-04 00:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

32%

68%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rafael dos Anjos (Local)

Prediction 31.60%3.17fair odd

EV -3.00%

Edge -0.978%

Kelly -1.45%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.32%31.60%31.60%31.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.932.982.953.0734.13%33.52%33.90%32.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alex Hernandez (Visit)

Prediction 68.40%1.46fair odd

EV -4.23%

Edge -3.02%

Kelly -10.58%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

68.13%68.40%68.40%68.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.371.381.381.4072.99%72.29%72.46%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Rafael dos Anjos (Local): 31.60%; Alex Hernandez (Visit): 68.40%. For Rafael dos Anjos (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.17. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.07, with an expected value of -3.00%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV -3.00%E -0.978%K -1.45%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -4.23%E -3.02%K -10.58%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-09-25 11:40
Unibet (UK)🎯	2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -6.79%E -2.30%K -3.48%G +0.000%	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.60%E -4.06%K -14.74%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-09-25 11:45
ReBet🎯	2.93I 34.13%NM 31.86%EV -7.43%E -2.53%K -3.85%G +0.000%	1.37I 72.99%NM 68.14%EV -6.29%E -4.59%K -16.99%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-09-25 11:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	3.09I 32.36%NM 30.30%	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%	33.00I 3.03%NM 2.84%	6.8%	2026-09-25 12:05