The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Rafa Garcia v Zhu Rong

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 18:59 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rafa Garcia (Local)

Prediction 41.77%2.39fair odd
EV -1.84%
Edge -0.785%
Kelly -1.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.51%42.05%41.77%43.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.082.272.282.3548.08%43.99%43.86%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Zhu Rong (Visit)

Prediction 58.23%1.72fair odd
EV -1.01%
Edge -0.592%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.56%57.95%58.23%59.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.491.641.631.7067.11%61.09%61.35%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rafa Garcia (Local): 41.77%; Zhu Rong (Visit): 58.23%. For Zhu Rong (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.72. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.70, with an expected value of -1.01%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -1.84%E -0.785%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.83%E -4.27%K -11.38%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -1.84%E -0.785%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.83%E -4.27%K -11.38%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-12 17:35
BetUS🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -2.26%E -0.967%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -5.66%E -3.50%K -9.14%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-12 18:15
Pinnacle🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.75%EV -2.68%E -1.15%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.25%EV -2.75%E -1.65%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-12 17:45
Coolbet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.85%EV -3.10%E -1.34%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.15%EV -2.75%E -1.65%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-12 16:45
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -3.10%E -1.34%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -4.50%E -2.74%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-12 17:35
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -3.10%E -1.34%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -4.50%E -2.74%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-12 17:35
Caesars🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.93%E -1.71%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.92%E -2.37%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-12 14:19
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.93%E -1.71%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.92%E -2.37%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-12 15:16
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.93%E -1.71%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.92%E -2.37%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-12 18:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -3.93%E -1.71%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -5.08%E -3.12%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-12 15:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.93%E -1.71%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.66%E -3.50%K -9.14%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-12 18:55
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -3.93%E -1.71%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.25%E -3.88%K -10.24%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-12 17:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.77%E -2.09%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.08%E -3.12%K -8.07%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-12 18:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.77%E -2.09%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.08%E -3.12%K -8.07%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-12 18:53
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.77%E -2.09%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.08%E -3.12%K -8.07%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-12 18:55
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.77%E -2.09%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.08%E -3.12%K -8.07%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-12 18:55
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.77%E -2.09%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.08%E -3.12%K -8.07%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-12 18:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.77%E -2.09%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.08%E -3.12%K -8.07%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-12 18:55
Bally Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.77%E -2.09%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.08%E -3.12%K -8.07%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-12 18:55
SportsBet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%EV -5.60%E -2.48%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95%EV -4.50%E -2.74%K -7.03%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-12 18:55
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -6.02%E -2.68%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -1.59%E -0.940%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-12 18:52
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.02%E -2.68%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.66%E -3.50%K -9.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 14:20
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.02%E -2.68%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.66%E -3.50%K -9.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 14:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.02%E -2.68%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.66%E -3.50%K -9.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 18:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.02%E -2.68%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.66%E -3.50%K -9.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 14:20
ReBet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -6.44%E -2.87%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -2.17%E -1.29%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-12 18:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -7.27%E -3.28%K -5.96%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -1.01%E -0.592%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-12 18:54
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -8.11%E -3.69%K -6.76%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -1.59%E -0.940%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-12 18:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -8.11%E -3.69%K -6.76%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -2.17%E -1.29%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-12 18:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.11%E -3.69%K -6.76%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.75%E -1.65%K -4.11%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-12 18:50
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 41.74%EV -13.12%E -6.31%K -12.15%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 58.26%EV -13.23%E -8.88%K -27.01%G +0.000%15.2%2026-09-12 18:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.42I 41.32%NM 41.26%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.74%0.1%2026-09-12 17:41
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84%0.5%2026-09-12 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84%0.5%2026-09-12 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84%0.5%2026-09-12 18:55
Matchbook◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84%0.5%2026-09-12 18:50
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%1.2%2026-09-12 17:50
Novig◎2.35I 42.55%NM 41.83%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.17%1.7%2026-09-12 18:55
ProphetX◎2.27I 44.05%NM 42.82%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.18%2.9%2026-09-12 18:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.23%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.22%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.56%8.6%2026-09-12 14:20