Language:English
Rafa Garcia v Alex Hernandez
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Rafa Garcia (Local)
Prediction 46.44%2.15fair odd
EV -0.146%
Edge -0.068%
Kelly -0.127%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.73%46.59%46.21%48.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.042.042.1551.55%48.94%49.02%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alex Hernandez (Visit)
Prediction 53.56%1.87fair odd
EV +0.150%
Edge +0.080%
Kelly +0.173%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.87
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.05%53.41%53.79%55.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.761.751.8758.14%56.78%57.14%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rafa Garcia (Local): 46.44%; Alex Hernandez (Visit): 53.56%. For Alex Hernandez (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.867. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.870, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.150%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -9.43%E -4.84%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV +0.150%E +0.080%K +0.173%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 16:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -9.43%E -4.84%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV +0.150%E +0.080%K +0.173%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 16:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.54%EV -9.90%E -5.10%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.46%EV -1.99%E -1.09%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 16:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.79%E -2.34%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.60%E -2.00%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-23 17:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.79%E -2.34%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.60%E -2.00%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-22 12:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.11%E -3.56%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.60%E -2.00%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-21 06:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.11%E -3.56%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.60%E -2.00%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-21 18:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.43%E -4.84%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.60%E -2.00%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-23 20:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 46.13%EV -2.93%E -1.40%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.87%EV -4.13%E -2.31%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-23 21:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.35%EV -7.58%E -3.81%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.65%EV -4.13%E -2.31%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-24 03:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.99%EV -2.93%E -1.40%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.01%EV -4.67%E -2.62%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-23 23:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -3.40%E -1.63%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -4.67%E -2.62%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-21 07:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.79%E -2.34%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.67%E -2.62%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 12:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.79%E -2.34%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.67%E -2.62%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 12:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -5.25%E -2.58%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -4.67%E -2.62%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 23:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.47%E -1.18%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.21%E -2.94%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-23 20:01 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -4.33%E -2.10%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -5.21%E -2.94%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-24 01:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.44%EV -9.43%E -4.84%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.56%EV -5.74%E -3.26%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-23 18:28 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.47%E -1.18%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -6.28%E -3.59%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-22 19:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.47%E -1.18%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -6.28%E -3.59%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-22 20:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.47%E -1.18%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -6.28%E -3.59%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-24 03:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -0.146%E -0.068%K -0.127%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -6.81%E -3.92%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-22 15:49 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.79%E -2.34%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.81%E -3.92%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-24 03:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.47%E -1.18%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.35%E -4.25%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-21 04:13 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.47%E -1.18%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.35%E -4.25%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-21 04:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -5.25%E -2.58%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.11%EV -7.35%E -4.25%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-24 03:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -5.25%E -2.58%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.11%EV -7.35%E -4.25%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-24 02:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -5.25%E -2.58%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.11%EV -7.35%E -4.25%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-24 02:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -5.25%E -2.58%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.11%EV -7.35%E -4.25%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-24 03:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -5.25%E -2.58%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.11%EV -7.35%E -4.25%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-24 02:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -5.25%E -2.58%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.11%EV -7.35%E -4.25%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-24 02:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -5.25%E -2.58%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.11%EV -7.35%E -4.25%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-24 02:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -5.25%E -2.58%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.11%EV -7.35%E -4.25%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-24 03:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -5.25%E -2.58%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.11%EV -7.35%E -4.25%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-24 03:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -5.25%E -2.58%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.11%EV -7.35%E -4.25%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-24 03:04 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -5.25%E -2.58%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.11%EV -7.35%E -4.25%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-24 03:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -5.25%E -2.58%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.11%EV -7.35%E -4.25%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-24 03:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -5.25%E -2.58%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.11%EV -7.35%E -4.25%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-24 03:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -5.25%E -2.58%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.11%EV -7.35%E -4.25%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-24 03:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -5.25%E -2.58%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.11%EV -7.35%E -4.25%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-24 02:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -3.40%E -1.63%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -7.88%E -4.58%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-21 18:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.91% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 54.09% | -0.1% | 2026-04-24 01:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 46.00% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 54.00% | 0.6% | 2026-04-23 21:14 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 46.00% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 54.00% | 0.6% | 2026-04-23 21:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 46.00% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 54.00% | 0.6% | 2026-04-23 21:45 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80% | 1.9% | 2026-04-23 20:10 |
| Novig◎ | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.76% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.24% | 3.6% | 2026-04-24 01:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.76% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.24% | 3.6% | 2026-04-24 01:55 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 44.58% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.55% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.86% | 7.3% | 2026-04-24 03:14 |