Language:English
Quillan Salkilld v Beneil Dariush
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Quillan Salkilld (Local)
Prediction 76.65%1.30fair odd
EV -1.12%
Edge -0.869%
Kelly -3.87%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.49%76.73%76.64%78.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.251.251.2981.97%80.11%80.00%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Beneil Dariush (Visit)
Prediction 23.35%4.28fair odd
EV +5.07%
Edge +1.13%
Kelly +1.45%
Growth +0.074%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.33%23.27%23.36%25.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.013.954.5027.40%24.94%25.32%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Quillan Salkilld (Local): 76.65%; Beneil Dariush (Visit): 23.35%. For Beneil Dariush (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.28. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.07%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -6.49%E -5.32%K -29.49%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV +5.07%E +1.13%K +1.45%G +0.074% | 4.2% | 2026-05-02 13:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -6.49%E -5.32%K -29.49%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV +5.07%E +1.13%K +1.45%G +0.074% | 4.2% | 2026-05-02 13:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -6.49%E -5.32%K -29.49%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV +1.11%E +0.255%K +0.332%G +0.004% | 5.1% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -4.95%E -4.00%K -20.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -1.93%E -0.460%K -0.603%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-02 13:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -4.95%E -4.00%K -20.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -1.93%E -0.460%K -0.603%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-30 23:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.61%EV -2.65%E -2.09%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 4.16I 24.04%NM 23.39%EV -2.86%E -0.689%K -0.906%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-05-02 13:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.49%EV -3.42%E -2.72%K -13.16%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-02 04:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.49%EV -3.42%E -2.72%K -13.16%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-02 13:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-02 13:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-02 12:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.95%E -4.00%K -20.64%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-02 12:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.95%E -4.00%K -20.64%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-02 04:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.95%E -4.00%K -20.64%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-02 12:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.95%E -4.00%K -20.64%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.27%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-02 12:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -3.42%E -2.72%K -13.16%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -6.60%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-02 12:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.60%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-02 03:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.60%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-02 03:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.60%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-02 06:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.60%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-02 03:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -7.77%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 03:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -7.77%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 03:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -7.77%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 03:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -7.77%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 03:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -7.77%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 03:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -7.77%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 03:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -7.77%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 03:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -7.77%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 03:14 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -7.77%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 03:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -7.77%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 03:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -7.77%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 03:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -7.77%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 03:19 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -7.77%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 03:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -4.95%E -4.00%K -20.64%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -7.77%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-02 09:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.40%EV -6.49%E -5.32%K -29.49%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -7.77%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-02 13:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -6.49%E -5.32%K -29.49%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -8.94%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-02 13:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.90%EV -1.12%E -0.869%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.10%EV -10.10%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-01 20:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.61%EV -1.12%E -0.869%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.39%EV -11.50%E -3.04%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-01 20:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -2.65%E -2.09%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -12.44%E -3.32%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-02 09:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -12.44%E -3.32%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-01 20:17 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -12.44%E -3.32%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-02 09:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -14.77%E -4.05%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-02 13:06 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 78.55% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 21.45% | 0.2% | 2026-05-02 12:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 0.9% | 2026-05-02 13:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 0.9% | 2026-05-02 13:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.0% | 2026-05-02 13:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.26% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.74% | 1.1% | 2026-05-02 11:11 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.48% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.52% | 3.3% | 2026-05-02 13:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.49% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51% | 3.8% | 2026-05-02 13:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.42% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.58% | 4.7% | 2026-05-02 13:10 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.98% | 4.22I 23.70%NM 22.15% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 7.0% | 2026-05-02 11:10 |