The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Piero Guaylupo v Callum Connor

Kickoff: 2026-09-22 23:37 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Piero Guaylupo (Local)

Prediction 52.92%1.89fair odd
EV +1.60%
Edge +0.835%
Kelly +1.74%
Growth +0.028%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.47%52.88%52.92%53.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.791.831.831.9255.87%54.51%54.64%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Callum Connor (Visit)

Prediction 47.08%2.12fair odd
EV -2.07%
Edge -0.996%
Kelly -1.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.25%47.12%47.08%50.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.981.972.0853.19%50.42%50.76%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Piero Guaylupo (Local): 52.92%; Callum Connor (Visit): 47.08%. For Piero Guaylupo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.89. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.92, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.60%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
ReBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV +1.60%E +0.835%K +1.74%G +0.028%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -11.49%E -6.11%K -13.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-22 17:20
FanDuel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -2.10%E -1.14%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -5.84%E -2.92%K -5.84%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-22 22:25
Unibet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.71%EV -2.63%E -1.43%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.29%EV -7.25%E -3.68%K -7.47%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-22 18:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.59%EV -3.16%E -1.73%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.41%EV -4.42%E -2.18%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-22 23:35
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -3.16%E -1.73%K -3.81%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -7.72%E -3.94%K -8.04%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-22 18:55
Grosvenor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -3.16%E -1.73%K -3.81%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -7.72%E -3.94%K -8.04%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-22 18:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.34%EV -3.69%E -2.03%K -4.50%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.66%EV -9.60%E -5.00%K -10.44%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-22 19:05
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.75%E -2.64%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.48%E -1.70%K -3.32%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-22 23:29
Pinnacle🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -5.28%E -2.95%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -2.07%E -0.996%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-22 23:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.85I 54.05%NM 54.09%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.91%-0.1%2026-09-22 23:27
ProphetX◎1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%5.5%2026-09-22 23:35