Language:English
Piera Rodriguez v Sam Hughes
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Piera Rodriguez (Local)
Prediction 57.19%1.75fair odd
EV -1.64%
Edge -0.952%
Kelly -2.27%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.72
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.99%57.66%57.11%64.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.591.651.7270.92%62.81%60.61%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sam Hughes (Visit)
Prediction 42.81%2.34fair odd
EV +13.45%
Edge +5.08%
Kelly +8.15%
Growth +1.10%
assuming max odds 2.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.05%42.34%42.89%44.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.342.252.6546.51%42.74%44.44%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Piera Rodriguez (Local): 57.19%; Sam Hughes (Visit): 42.81%. For Sam Hughes (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.34. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.45%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -17.65%E -12.26%K -40.11%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV +13.45%E +5.08%K +8.15%G +1.10% | 7.2% | 2026-03-14 21:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -18.22%E -12.74%K -42.38%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV +13.45%E +5.08%K +8.15%G +1.10% | 7.7% | 2026-03-14 21:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -18.22%E -12.74%K -42.38%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV +13.45%E +5.08%K +8.15%G +1.10% | 7.7% | 2026-03-14 21:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -18.22%E -12.74%K -42.38%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV +13.45%E +5.08%K +8.15%G +1.10% | 7.7% | 2026-03-14 21:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.52%EV -18.22%E -12.74%K -42.38%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.48%EV +11.31%E +4.35%K +7.07%G +0.800% | 8.4% | 2026-03-14 21:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.07%EV -18.22%E -12.74%K -42.38%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.93%EV +9.17%E +3.60%K +5.92%G +0.543% | 9.1% | 2026-03-14 21:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.07%EV -18.22%E -12.74%K -42.38%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.93%EV +9.17%E +3.60%K +5.92%G +0.543% | 9.1% | 2026-03-14 21:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.07%EV -18.22%E -12.74%K -42.38%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.93%EV +9.17%E +3.60%K +5.92%G +0.543% | 9.1% | 2026-03-14 21:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.07%EV -18.22%E -12.74%K -42.38%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.93%EV +9.17%E +3.60%K +5.92%G +0.543% | 9.1% | 2026-03-14 21:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.39%EV -19.37%E -13.73%K -47.23%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.61%EV +9.17%E +3.60%K +5.92%G +0.543% | 10.1% | 2026-03-14 21:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%EV -14.22%E -9.48%K -28.44%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV +8.74%E +3.44%K +5.68%G +0.496% | 6.0% | 2026-03-14 21:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -11.93%E -7.75%K -22.09%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV +2.75%E +1.15%K +1.96%G +0.054% | 6.6% | 2026-03-14 21:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.64%E -3.42%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -1.53%E -0.666%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-14 15:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.64%E -3.42%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -1.53%E -0.666%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-14 15:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.87%EV -5.07%E -3.05%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%EV -2.39%E -1.05%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-14 20:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.35%E -1.98%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.67%E -1.63%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-14 21:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.50%E -2.69%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.67%E -1.63%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-14 17:37 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.50%E -2.69%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.67%E -1.63%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-10 23:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.64%E -3.42%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.67%E -1.63%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 20:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.64%E -3.42%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.67%E -1.63%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 21:03 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.21%E -3.79%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.67%E -1.63%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-13 09:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -7.93%E -4.92%K -13.00%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -3.67%E -1.63%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-14 21:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.35%EV -1.64%E -0.952%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.65%EV -4.96%E -2.23%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-14 20:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -3.35%E -1.98%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -4.96%E -2.23%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-14 21:04 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -3.35%E -1.98%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -5.81%E -2.64%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-14 21:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.50%E -2.69%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.81%E -2.64%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 21:02 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.50%E -2.69%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.81%E -2.64%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 19:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.50%E -2.69%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.81%E -2.64%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-13 13:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.50%E -2.69%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.81%E -2.64%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 13:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.50%E -2.69%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.81%E -2.64%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 13:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.50%E -2.69%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.81%E -2.64%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 20:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.50%E -2.69%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.81%E -2.64%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 11:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -5.07%E -3.05%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -5.81%E -2.64%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-14 19:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -6.21%E -3.79%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -7.10%E -3.27%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-14 21:04 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -3.35%E -1.98%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -7.95%E -3.70%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-14 20:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.50%E -2.69%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.95%E -3.70%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-14 21:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.51% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.49% | -0.0% | 2026-03-14 20:45 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 57.11% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 42.89% | 0.1% | 2026-03-14 21:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.08% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.92% | 0.7% | 2026-03-14 21:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.36% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.64% | 1.4% | 2026-03-14 21:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.36% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.64% | 1.4% | 2026-03-14 21:02 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.14% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.86% | 1.8% | 2026-03-14 21:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.28% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.72% | 2.1% | 2026-03-14 21:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 37.17% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 62.83% | 59.2% | 2026-03-14 21:05 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.45% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.71% | 8.6% | 2026-03-14 20:40 |