The School of Odds
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Petr Yan v Merab Dvalishvili

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 19:55 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Petr Yan (Local)

Prediction 58.53%1.71fair odd
EV -0.507%
Edge -0.298%
Kelly -0.725%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.41%58.34%58.62%59.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.491.631.621.7067.11%61.52%61.73%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Merab Dvalishvili (Visit)

Prediction 41.47%2.41fair odd
EV -0.460%
Edge -0.192%
Kelly -0.329%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.30%41.66%41.38%43.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.082.282.302.4048.08%43.79%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Petr Yan (Local): 58.53%; Merab Dvalishvili (Visit): 41.47%. For Merab Dvalishvili (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.41. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.40, with an expected value of -0.460%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -0.507%E -0.298%K -0.725%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -8.76%E -3.98%K -7.30%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-24 13:10
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -1.09%E -0.646%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -7.93%E -3.57%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-24 17:50
SportsBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%EV -1.68%E -0.999%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.41%EV -9.17%E -4.19%K -7.71%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-24 19:00
Pinnacle🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.56%EV -2.26%E -1.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.44%EV -2.12%E -0.898%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.3%2026-10-24 19:45
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.26%E -1.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.76%E -3.98%K -7.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 17:50
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.26%E -1.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.76%E -3.98%K -7.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 17:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.26%E -1.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.76%E -3.98%K -7.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 18:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 59.11%EV -2.85%E -1.72%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.89%EV -0.460%E -0.192%K -0.329%G +0.000%1.9%2026-10-24 19:53
888sport🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.43%E -2.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.68%E -2.97%K -5.35%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 13:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.43%E -2.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.68%E -2.97%K -5.35%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 13:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -4.02%E -2.45%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -8.76%E -3.98%K -7.30%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-24 18:25
Coolbet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.15%EV -4.60%E -2.82%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.85%EV -2.12%E -0.898%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-24 19:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.60%E -2.82%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.61%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-24 19:54
Bovada🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -0.460%E -0.192%K -0.329%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-24 19:43
ReBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -2.12%E -0.898%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-24 19:50
Caesars🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.53%E -1.08%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-24 19:32
NordicBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.53%E -1.08%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-24 18:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.61%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-24 03:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.61%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-24 03:40
TABtouch🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.61%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-24 03:40
BetRivers🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.61%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-24 03:39
Unibet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.61%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-24 03:40
Bally Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.61%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-24 03:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.61%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-24 03:40
betPARX🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.61%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-24 03:39
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.61%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-24 03:40
Bet Right🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.61%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-24 19:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.61%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-24 03:40
BetAnything🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.19%E -3.20%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.61%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-24 19:45
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.77%E -3.59%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -2.53%E -1.08%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-24 19:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -5.77%E -3.59%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -8.76%E -3.98%K -7.30%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 19:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.36%E -3.97%K -10.60%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -2.53%E -1.08%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 19:50
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.18%EV -6.36%E -3.97%K -10.60%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.82%EV -3.78%E -1.63%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-24 18:10
Fliff🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.94%E -4.37%K -11.77%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -4.61%E -2.00%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-24 19:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -7.53%E -4.77%K -12.98%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -6.68%E -2.97%K -5.35%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-24 19:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -10.46%E -6.83%K -19.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -6.68%E -2.97%K -5.35%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-24 19:50
Grosvenor🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 58.26%EV -12.80%E -8.59%K -26.12%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 41.74%EV -13.73%E -6.60%K -12.72%G +0.000%15.2%2026-10-24 03:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.68I 59.52%NM 59.62%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.38%-0.2%2026-10-24 19:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88%2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12%0.5%2026-10-24 19:45
Matchbook◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88%2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12%0.5%2026-10-24 19:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32%0.8%2026-10-24 19:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32%0.8%2026-10-24 19:50
Novig◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-10-24 19:50
Kalshi◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-10-24 19:50
Polymarket◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-10-24 19:50
ProphetX◎1.69I 59.17%NM 57.86%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.14%2.3%2026-10-24 19:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.65%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.07%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.28%7.1%2026-10-24 19:35