The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Peter Barrett v Elijah Harris

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Peter Barrett (Local)

Prediction 69.81%1.43fair odd
EV -5.06%
Edge -3.72%
Kelly -14.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.81%69.81%69.81%75.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.231.321.361.3681.30%75.95%73.53%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Elijah Harris (Visit)

Prediction 30.19%3.31fair odd
EV +16.23%
Edge +4.21%
Kelly +5.69%
Growth +0.924%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.21%30.19%30.19%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.383.303.8533.33%29.56%30.30%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Peter Barrett (Local): 69.81%; Elijah Harris (Visit): 30.19%. For Elijah Harris (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.31. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.23%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Grosvenor🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.79%EV -14.13%E -11.49%K -61.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.21%EV +16.23%E +4.21%K +5.69%G +0.924%7.3%2026-08-28 16:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -5.06%E -3.72%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -0.378%E -0.114%K -0.164%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-29 21:34
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.06%E -3.72%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.43%E -3.14%K -4.72%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 18:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.