The School of Odds

Patrik Kincl v Hojat Khajevand

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 16:00 UTC

Final: Patrik Kincl 1–0 Hojat Khajevand

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Patrik Kincl (Local)

Prediction 63.40%1.58fair odd
EV -3.00%
Edge -1.96%
Kelly -5.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.40%63.40%63.40%63.40%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.531.531.531.5365.36%65.36%65.36%65.36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Hojat Khajevand (Visit)

Prediction 36.60%2.73fair odd
EV -3.00%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.60%36.60%36.60%36.60%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.652.652.652.6537.74%37.74%37.74%37.74%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -3.00%E -1.96%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -3.00%E -1.13%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-11 15:53
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.