The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Patrick Ocheme v Ayinda Octave

Kickoff: 2026-06-13 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Patrick Ocheme (Local)

Prediction 76.08%1.31fair odd
EV +3.47%
Edge +2.55%
Kelly +9.64%
Growth +0.335%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.51%76.08%76.08%76.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.311.311.3679.37%76.19%76.05%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ayinda Octave (Visit)

Prediction 23.92%4.18fair odd
EV -1.93%
Edge -0.472%
Kelly -0.624%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.51%23.92%23.92%30.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.563.534.1032.26%28.07%28.37%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Patrick Ocheme (Local): 76.08%; Ayinda Octave (Visit): 23.92%. For Patrick Ocheme (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.31. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.36, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.47%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV +3.47%E +2.55%K +9.64%G +0.335%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -25.85%E -8.34%K -12.31%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-13 14:30
Neds🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV +3.47%E +2.55%K +9.64%G +0.335%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -25.85%E -8.34%K -12.31%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-13 14:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.67%EV -3.38%E -2.66%K -12.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV -5.52%E -1.40%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-13 21:20
FanDuel🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.49%EV -4.14%E -3.28%K -15.91%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51%EV -1.93%E -0.472%K -0.624%G +0.000%3.8%2026-06-13 21:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.