The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Patrick Habirora v Benson Henderson

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 21:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Patrick Habirora (Local)

Prediction 91.18%1.10fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -3.15%
Kelly -55.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
90.42%91.18%91.18%92.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.051.051.0697.09%95.63%95.24%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Benson Henderson (Visit)

Prediction 8.82%11.34fair odd
EV +10.19%
Edge +0.815%
Kelly +0.886%
Growth +0.090%

assuming max odds 12.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.61%8.82%8.82%9.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0011.4311.0012.5010.00%8.75%9.09%8.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Patrick Habirora (Local): 91.18%; Benson Henderson (Visit): 8.82%. For Benson Henderson (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.34. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.19%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Neds🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -6.08%E -5.90%K -202.65%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV +10.19%E +0.815%K +0.886%G +0.090%5.1%2026-05-21 12:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -6.08%E -5.90%K -202.65%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV +10.19%E +0.815%K +0.886%G +0.090%5.1%2026-05-21 12:40
FanDuel🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95%EV -4.26%E -4.05%K -85.12%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV +5.78%E +0.482%K +0.525%G +0.030%3.6%2026-05-23 20:40
LeoVegas🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.26%E -4.05%K -85.12%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -3.03%E -0.276%K -0.303%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-23 16:39
Grosvenor🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.26%E -4.05%K -85.12%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -3.03%E -0.276%K -0.303%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-23 16:39
Unibet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.26%E -4.05%K -85.12%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -3.03%E -0.276%K -0.303%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-23 16:39
BetOnline.ag🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.34%E -3.15%K -55.73%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -11.85%E -1.18%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-23 20:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.