Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Patrick Downey v Magomed Magomedkerimov

2026-10-23 22:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

73%

27%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Patrick Downey (Local)

Prediction 72.81%1.37fair odd

EV -7.54%

Edge -5.94%

Kelly -27.92%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

72.81%72.81%72.81%72.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.271.271.271.2778.74%78.74%78.74%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Magomed Magomedkerimov (Visit)

Prediction 27.19%3.68fair odd

EV -7.54%

Edge -2.22%

Kelly -3.14%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.19%27.19%27.19%27.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.403.403.403.4029.41%29.41%29.41%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Patrick Downey (Local): 72.81%; Magomed Magomedkerimov (Visit): 27.19%. For Patrick Downey (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.37. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.27, with an expected value of -7.54%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -7.54%E -5.94%K -27.92%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.54%E -2.22%K -3.14%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-10-21 17:24

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.