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Patricio Pitbull v Aaron Pico
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Patricio Pitbull (Local)
Prediction 31.02%3.22fair odd
EV +0.821%
Edge +0.253%
Kelly +0.365%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 3.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.04%30.94%31.11%32.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.063.053.2534.72%32.70%32.79%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Aaron Pico (Visit)
Prediction 68.98%1.45fair odd
EV -2.74%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -6.69%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.41
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.29%69.06%68.89%70.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.381.381.4175.19%72.35%72.46%70.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Patricio Pitbull (Local): 31.02%; Aaron Pico (Visit): 68.98%. For Patricio Pitbull (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.22. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.821%.
Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV +0.821%E +0.253%K +0.365%G +0.003% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -8.26%E -6.21%K -25.03%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-12 00:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -0.730%E -0.228%K -0.332%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -5.50%E -4.01%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-12 00:38 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.17I 31.55%NM 30.33%EV -1.66%E -0.524%K -0.765%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.67%EV -4.81%E -3.49%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-12 00:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.13I 31.95%NM 31.06%EV -2.90%E -0.927%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.94%EV -2.74%E -1.94%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-04-12 00:39 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -3.83%E -1.24%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -3.43%E -2.45%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-12 00:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.83%E -1.24%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.19%E -4.55%K -17.19%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-12 00:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.01%EV -4.76%E -1.55%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.99%EV -4.81%E -3.49%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 00:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -5.38%E -1.76%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -3.43%E -2.45%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-12 00:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -5.38%E -1.76%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -3.43%E -2.45%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-12 00:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.38%E -1.76%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.81%E -3.49%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 00:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.38%E -1.76%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.81%E -3.49%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 00:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.38%E -1.76%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.81%E -3.49%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 00:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.38%E -1.76%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.81%E -3.49%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 00:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.38%E -1.76%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.81%E -3.49%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 00:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.38%E -1.76%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.81%E -3.49%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 00:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.38%E -1.76%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.81%E -3.49%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 00:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.38%E -1.76%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.81%E -3.49%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 00:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.38%E -1.76%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.81%E -3.49%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 00:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.38%E -1.76%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.81%E -3.49%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 00:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.38%E -1.76%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.81%E -3.49%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 00:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.38%E -1.76%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.81%E -3.49%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 00:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.38%E -1.76%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.81%E -3.49%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 00:40 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -5.38%E -1.76%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -6.19%E -4.55%K -17.19%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-12 00:38 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.93%E -2.31%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.43%E -2.45%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 00:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -6.93%E -2.31%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -4.12%E -2.96%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 00:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -10.66%E -3.70%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -3.43%E -2.45%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-12 00:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -10.66%E -3.70%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -3.43%E -2.45%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-12 00:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.77% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 70.23% | 0.3% | 2026-04-12 00:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92% | 0.7% | 2026-04-12 00:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92% | 0.7% | 2026-04-12 00:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31% | 0.9% | 2026-04-12 00:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.94% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.06% | 1.2% | 2026-04-12 00:40 |